BONUS Edition: Federal Stimulus, The Bruins, and Gostowski
$2 trillion in federal aid is on the way, a Boston Bruins offseason preview, plus quick hitters on Sanders, Massachusetts, and more.
It’s a special Wednesday edition of the View Off a Ledge Newsletter because Tom Shea put together 100 paragraphs on 100 NFL Offseason moves and that effort comes out tomorrow. It’s a beautiful monster and I can’t wait for people to read it.
This week though, we do a little bit of news on what we know of the now agreed upon third phase of federal stimulus as the economy continues to suffer as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread across the United States and the world. Then, we’ll move into distraction content with a Boston Bruins offseason preview and a definitely dead serious ode to Stephen Gostowski that definitely isn’t my Tom Brady column with me plugging Stephen Gostowski’s name in for Brady’s over and over again.
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Federal Government Agrees to $2 Trillion in Federal Stimulus
The AP released a report early this morning breaking down the available details on the stimulus bill that Bloomberg reported is approximately 10 percent of the U.S. GDP. The deal was largely held up over the weekend by partisan disagreements over how much aid should be given to big business—earlier in the week federal aid to industries such as airlines was going to be largely overseen by the Treasury Secretary, which was largely unappealing to Democrats.
The final bill released this morning changed that to the same policy used for the auto-bailouts of 2008—an inspector general and oversight board will be appointed to run $500 billion in loans for “big business.” The change came shortly after President Donald Trump expressed some concern over potential stock buybacks and abuse of the aid by larger businesses. Trump and Republicans have bashed Democrats for holding the legislation up prior to early this morning—around 1:15am—when the sides broke through on an agreement.
Checks for Americans were also approved: one-time payments will be made to both adults and children—adults will receive $1,200 and children will reason $500. Families that make over $100,000 per year will be excluded from that measure, according to the New York Times report on the bill.
Legislators told the Times this will not be the final piece of aid passed to help float the economy during its current downturn.
Other major tentpoles of the legislation include a $367 billion financial aid package geared toward supporting small businesses, attempting to incentivize them not to lay off or furlough employees during the economic downturn caused by COVID-19. The Times report noted that that aid is contingent on small-businesses having maintained payroll levels until now. The form that aid will take is in federally guaranteed loans.
Hospitals are also scheduled to receive $300 billion in aid, according to the AP report. “Cash-strapped” states will also continue to receive more aid to cover virus-related increases in expenses, per the AP.
Democrats said that the plan would also target replacing salaries for already furloughed employees for the next four months—essentially, unemployment payments plus $600 per week ad-ons from the federal government.
The Times report also noted there is a provision in the bill restricting Trump-owned businesses, as well as other senior officials’ businesses, from receiving federal loans or stimulus at this time.
Quick Hitters: Massachusetts Non-Essential Businesses Close, Baker Holds a Press Conference Boston College COVID-19 Diagnoses, and More:
Massachusetts Governor Baker shut down non-essential businesses over the weekend as state cases of COVID-19 continued to rise, and he criticized the federal government for arguing for too long over the economic aid package Tuesday afternoon, according to Stephanie Murray’s Politico Massachusetts newsletter—the package passed early this morning. Baker said the state response to the economic downturn and pandemic would largely hinge on what sort of federal aid is coming, according to Murray. Look for more details on what sorts of state aid is incoming this week, as well as how the state will be handling the new, large increases in federal aid. Murray said that Massachusetts is going to need some “serious cash,” and I’d imagine that means Massachusetts is among the “cash strapped” states receiving more aid as a part of the federal package. One thing Baker did note, according to The Boston Globe, is that he hopes that construction work continues despite the issues pertaining to the coronavirus. Based on the housing crunch, Baker said it’s important that construction continue working on “as many projects as possible.”
Unemployment numbers aren’t due out until tomorrow, but are expected to be extreme. In Massachusetts, The Salem News reported “the state has received twice as many new jobless claims as were filed during the worst month of the great recession.” Like I said: We’re doing distraction content exclusively tomorrow.
Harvard University President Lawrence Bacow and his wife have tested positive for COVID-19.
Boston College reported 19 community members have tested positive for COVID-19—most of them are students returning from study abroad, but for the first time a student on campus was diagnosed two days ago with the coronavirus. The student is in isolation as he recovers in 2150. The remaining students remain housed on Upper Campus. Additionally, the campus recreation center has been closed. You’ll find the press releases here.
NHL Offseason Previews: The Boston Bruins
We’re previewing the NHL offseason because we’re “bored.” You can check out Tom Shea’s preview of the Pittsburgh Penguins offseason here. This week: I finish off our home teams with the Boston Bruins potentially temperamental offseason.
Given Elliotte Friedman’s recent report I’m assuming a $81.5 million cap. For the sake of this argument, we’ll pretend that compliance buyouts won’t be a part of the offseason equation—for now. Thanks to Evolving Hockey for their excellent contract projections (worth the patronage!).
Bruins
Current total allocation: $61.3M ($3.6M/player)
Total spots to fill: About 7 ($20.2M remaining)
Most certain: Forward
Current allocation: $40.4M ($3.67M/forward)
Spots to fill: About 3
The Bruins aren’t going to do much crazy stuff on the forward line: Evolving Hockey projects restricted free agent Jake DeBrusk will get $4,417,000 this offseason, and I think the Bruins pay that ticket, even if the projection of a two-year bridge deal holds true as well. If DeBrusk improves, David Krejci’s upcoming payment downshift will help ease any additional costs related to retaining DeBrusk two years down the road—or the Bruins will try to replace him then when the window is theoretically closed and Boston is reloading.
Here’s where it gets tough: third/fourth liners Anders Bjork and Joakim Nordstrom are both set to hit free agency this year—Bjork as a restricted free agent. If Torey Krug and Jaroslav Halak both do not return (we’ll get there), then it’s possible both Bjork and Nordstrom return for the 2020-21 season—if only one of them returns, then it’s possible Nordstrom is invited back at his projection ($710,300 for one year). I think it’s more likely the Bruins let Nordstrom walk and try to promote one of Anton Blidh or Trent Frederic, who remain on the roster, or they bring back one or more of their younger depth restricted free agent forwards—Zach Senyshyn, Karson Kuhlman, or Peter Cehlarik—to fill in the gaps at the bottom of the roster. If both Bjork and Nordstrom return, then only one of the depth forwards returns and competes with Blidh and Frederic for the healthy-scratch spots.
Unfortunately for the forwards at the bottom of the depth chart, their fates largely rest in the hands of their more talented teammates at other positions, who will command nearly all of the Bruins available cap room this offseason.
Prediction: DeBrusk signs the bridge deal. I think one of Bjork or Nordstrom is back—if it were up to me, I’d resign Bjork and let Nordstrom go regardless to try some of the forwards with more potential to move up farther up the ranks than Nordstrom can. It’s probably more likely the Bruins bet on some bottom of the lineup grit and either renounce Bjork’s RFA rights or trade them while bringing Nordstrom back for essentially the veteran minimum.
Medium certainty: Goalie
Current allocation: $7M ($7M/goalie)
Spots to fill: 1
Goalies should be simple and never are—Bruins fans have been trying to ship Vezina-winner Tuuka Rask out of town for five years because he’s not top-of-his-game Tim Thomas, and now look like fools as Rask has settled into perennially looking like one of the most excellent goaltenders in the NHL. The reason that happened, though, is the Bruins slightly reduced his workload to get him closer to a 50/50 split with his backup—traditionally Anton Khudobin or Jaroslav Halak—and then unleashing Rask full-time and rested once the playoffs roll around.
The bad news is for the second straight year, Halak is hitting free agency and it’s not clear that he feels compelled to remain in Boston. The Bruins tend to go with one-year deals for their backup goalies—the Bruins defensive system tends to make backup goalies a decent amount of money, despite them usually being veterans rather than the more popular young guns. Those young guns have always struggled in the Bruins system—see Malcolm Subban or Zane McIntyre, two very good minor league goaltenders who didn’t make it with the Bruins, if you need examples.
If the Bruins bring back DeBrusk, which seems like a no-brainer since there isn’t an obvious replacement and they control his RFA rights, and retain Torey Krug, it becomes impossible to retain Halak. In fact, the Bruins would need to convince a veteran to come cup-hunting with them on a discount in order to get anyone of value to back up Rask—without signing Bjork or Nordstrom but after signing the three free agent defensemen the Bruins have (again, we’re getting there), the Bruins are projected at $797,409 in space.
That makes it more likely the Bruins rejigger their defense corps without Krug. If they do so while trying to retain as much value as possible, it’s likely they’ll have around $4 million in free space. If they can convince Halak to come back on either a one or two-year deal for a similar cap hit to what he received this year, that’s the Bruins best case scenario and they theoretically escape any goalie uncertainty going into next season. Worst case, they’re begging one of Ryan Miller, Corey Crawford, Craig Anderson, Cam Talbot, or Mike Smith to join their ranks as the backup. Perhaps most realistically, they’ll go after Khudobin, or a different long term backup such as Al Montoya to fill the position if a team takes a flier on Halak as a starter.
Prediction: Halak leaves for a chance at a full-time starting job, the Bruins pay Khudobin to return for a third stint with the B’s with a raise to just under the $4 million per year mark (he had a .930 going this year and has always performed well in Boston, and is younger than every option but Talbot). The wild card is that the Bruins get active in the trade market and go after a goalie on a bad team, offering bad salary (JOHN MOORE!) and a first round draft pick as collateral. If they do that, Halak could return and maybe even Krug...
Least certain: Defense
Current allocation: $12.35M ($2.47M/defenseman)
Spots to fill: About 3
Quite literally my entire being wants Torey Krug to be back on the Bruins next year. Giving a combined $4.75 million to Chara and Moore is sickening when that gap could give the Bruins the chance to bring Krug back.
But if Krug gets his Evolving Hockey projection—$7,376,000 over five years—or goes above it, the Bruins won’t bring him back and they’ll bet on Matt Grzelcyk and a replacement UFA to fill in for Krug’s production. Krug’s powerplay work is minimized on this Bruins team which has approximately 5,000 different players who can also fill his role, but his 5-on-5 abilities will be sorely missed if he heads home to Detroit, which has been the consensus landing spot.
The only hiccup in that is if Krug is willing to take a discount for more shots at the cup. The Bruins will be a contender next year—maybe not the same level they are this year with essentially every player on the roster having a career year, but they’ll be close. If Krug stays, Moore needs to be dumped, perhaps with a very limited amount of retained salary, for nothing and Halak will be shown the door.
It’s more likely that even if Moore is sent into the nether world—David Backes was traded, anything is possible—the Bruins will have to zero in on cheaper options such as T.J. Brodie, Travis Hamonic, Sami Vatenen, or Ben Hutton. All of those players reside in the $4-4.99 million tax bracket, leaving another $4 million left over for a backup goaltender—$6 million if Moore is straight up dumped for a pick, $5 million if some salary is retained.
Brendan Dillon is a cheaper, and worse, option if the Bruins can’t convince a single member of the previously mentioned crew to come to Boston, which seems slightly unlikely. After that, the Bruins really might as well give Moore a chance as the second or third pairing defenseman depending on how Chara is doing while giving their young guns—Urho Vaakanainen, Jeremy Lauzon, and RFA Jakub Zboril a chance at cracking the lineup to spell Chara.
Prediction: Krug goes to Detroit for more than $8 million per year for seven or eight years, the Bruins sign one of the Brodie/Hamonic/Vatenen/Hutton foursome—let’s say they pay Hutton a little extra and bring him in since he’s the youngest of the group and I like to pretend that matters to Bruins management—and Moore is salary dumped to make extra room for a the returning Khudobin.
Net Result: $3,563,409 in cap space: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1686681
Big picture:
The amount of potential moving pieces plus a lack of a rumor mill beyond Krug makes it difficult to predict what directions Bruins management wants to head in, with the exception of, I don’t know, paying its employees when the Jacobs family is worth billions of dollars and the Bruins rake in cash from their fans. Beyond that, Chara, DeBrusk, and Grzelcyk all seem like sure-fire returners, while Krug and Halak seem like they’re almost guaranteed to head for the exits. By leaving some cap room to maneuver within by dumping Moore, the Bruins would be in excellent position to make moves at the next deadline, or even to try to put together a package to improve its slightly weakened defense corps. I still think this team, whether it signs Hutton or anyone else to replace Krug, would be extremely well-positioned for a cup-run, whether it’s from the one-seed like this year or a wild-card spot because other Atlantic teams make improvements.
Stephen Gostowski Was Cut Because His Overall Rating in Madden is Going Down and I Am “Not Upset”
Note: This is definitely a completely original work and definitely not me printing my Brady column from last week again and just swapping out some words. Definitely. I would never do that. For sure.
Alright look I’m really upset but there’s a pandemic, and the constant stream of new positive tests, rising death toll, and testing-related issues—alongside a now-dwindling VENTILATOR supply!—has provided a pleasant reprieve from the departure of the sports figure that has defined the past two decades of unparalleled sporting success in New England and Boston.
Based on the SEVEN other departures, the Patriots didn’t only show STEPHEN GOSTOWSKI the door, but the fact that they did is both galling and simultaneously not surprising at this point. ESPN’s Jeff Darlington almost reached the point of literally screaming from the rooftops that GOSTOWSKI was on the way out, and after that the only hope New England fans had was that Bill Belichik is known for rewarding veterans for past exemplary performance year after year.
Just kidding! I think the full list of Patriots who retired here before Bill shipped them out the door are Troy Brown, Tedy Bruschi, and...Matt Light? Yeah I just checked he retired here. Thought he might’ve gotten a look with, like, the Dolphins or something.
Guess not.
Hey, it works to some degree. Veterans want more money, they bring marketing advantages and name brand recognition, as well as what’s supposed to be guaranteed on-the-field success, which isn’t actually true in any sport—old guys tend to result in diminishing returns or no returns at all.
But...couldn’t we have had just this one exception, Bill? Just STEPHEN GOSTOWSKI? He’s STEPHEN F—king GOSTOWSKI! Undisputedly the greatest of all time AT BEING NAMED STEPHEN GOSTOWSKI! Letting STEPHEN GOSTOWSKI walk out the door is heartbreaking and almost as dirty as Danny Ainge sending Isaiah Thomas out the door for Kyrie Irving.
Look, STEPHEN GOSTOWSKI is my idol, successful at everything I am not successful at (relationships, KICKING A FOOTBALL, and money—though I have no children so I think that’s a win for me over him (I SAY I THINK BECAUSE I DO NOT KNOW IF STEPHEN HAS CHILDREN AND WILL NOT LOOK IT UP)? That’s pretty subjective at this point though. His content creation PROBABLY puts mine to shame.). His picture hangs over my bed in my parents’ house. His jersey is DEFINITELY the only one I’ve worn since I grew out of my Corey Dillon one in like 2005. It may be the only one I ever wear. I will miss watching him helm my team AS A KICKER in a way I don’t know I can even fathom yet.
Getting to watch STEPHEN GOSTOWSKI play KICKER for my team was like winning the lottery every year for 15 years in a row. I will miss it dearly. I wish I could’ve somehow given that experience to all the people who hate him, who hate the Patriots, who hate the coach who is betting his legacy on dumping his greatest acolyte, because maybe then everyone who hated him could see why we love him so much. I assume Detroit Red Wings Fans who watched Yzerman, San Francisco 49er fans who’ve basically watched anyone who has played for them, and Edmonton Oiler fans who watched the ’80s teams are the only fans who really understand what it’s like to watch pure perfection play out in front of your eyes, for the team that serves as a representation of your city.
It’s a genuinely moving experience. It allows losers like me who try to downplay emotion or older dudes who gave emotion up at age 18 to remember what it’s like to feel about stuff.
I don’t know, I’m not breaking any new ground here. Rooting for STEPHEN GOSTOWSKI has been the delight of my life, and it certainly doesn’t end because Bill Belichik is a cold f—king bastard. Whether the old man is right or not doesn’t matter to me—in the same way I’m rationally livid Mookie Betts has shipped out to Los Angeles, I’m irrationally livid with Belichik for doing the exact same thing he’s done for 20 years to the sports figure that’s defined my entire lifetime of fandom—I barely remember Drew Bledsoe in 1999, I can only just remember Ty Law returning the first Kurt Warner interception for a touchdown in early 2001. STEPHEN GOSTOWSKI, in a way, is my entire sports fandom—the exemplification of my disconnect from the Boston sports fans who lived through Red Sox and Patriots futility for 86 years (many fewer, but just as embarrassing—if not more so—years in the Patriots’ case).
STEPHEN GOSTOWSKI is the reason Bob Kraft has power in the NFL, the reason the Kraft group has built up a small world around Gillette Stadium. The black hole STEPHEN GOSTOWSKI’S departure leaves in his wake will never be filled again.
They should induct him into the Patriots hall of fame right now. And his jersey should be retired...I mean literally right now. It’s shameful it hasn’t been done yet.
I hope Bruce Arians’ hats keep STEPHEN GOSTOWSKI happy DESPITE GOSTOWSKI NOT BEING ON THE BUCCANEERS YET.
STEPHEN GOSTOWSKI is, was, and will always be the best in my mind. I’ll always think of him as a Patriot and as the sports figure every athlete who comes through this town will always have to live up to.
None of them will.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
See you tomorrow for Tom Shea’s 100 paragraphs on the 100 players that have thus far defined the NFL offseason.
Jack Goldman is the publisher of this here newsletter and an independent reporter who in his spare time goes to Boston College. You shouldn’t follow him on Twitter @the_manofgold and you definitely shouldn’t hit that button down there and subscribe to A View Off a Ledge.