I Know It’s a Pandemic But What About Touchdown Tommy Brady?
COVID-19 Updates, Education and Small Business sector notes, plus some much-needed distraction pieces on the NFL, EPL, NBA, and NHL.
Hey, you ever start a weekly newsletter and then a pandemic shuts the entire world down?
Because I did and holy crap does a weekly newsletter feel outdated right now. Every day the news cycle runs entire cycles around me before I even open my eyes and yell “Good Morning, City!” out of the windows in my apartment.
So...if there’s some stuff in here you’ve read already...Sorry!! I’ll try to include either my analysis or someone else’s to provide more context to some of the older pieces of news—I’m only including them if I think they’re still relevant!
THIS WEEK: Some quick hitters on where Massachusetts and the United States stand on fighting the pandemic. Some more in depth stuff on what’s happened to Massachusetts colleges in the past week as they’ve adjusted to online learning and those that kept their campuses open have been forced to change their minds.
In addition, I’m pretty sure that there’s zero small business relief in the current stimulus bills so we’re going to talk about that (shoutout to you, hospitality industry, you deserve better). There was also a debate this week that I was completely wrong about so there’ll be a bullet point on that so I can dance on my own figurative grave.
Then we’re going to do distraction content: Tom Brady is gone and I’m not going to talk about it for long but...I’m still going to talk about it. Plus more quick hitters, this time on the whirring free agency cycle that you can find the NFL in right now. Finally: Tom Shea returns after a week off to begin our series on what NHL teams could be facing this coming offseason via some salary cap breakdowns. This edition will mercifully close with my thoughts on how sports leagues should reopen when (YEAH I SAID WHEN) the time comes.
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Alright enough let’s get started:
COVID-19, The Government, and The Economy: A Love Story Made in Paradise, Presumably
Two “phases” of economic stimulus efforts are complete as of Wednesday night: Congress has passed—and President Donald Trump has signed into law—two separate bills in the last two weeks.
The first was covered in last week’s newsletter, this one...may have to be covered in next week’s newsletter. ABC News has some details on what kind of relief is on the way for a still reeling American economy (the European Central Bank is working on the rest of the world), but those details are still vague.
The bill is estimated to cost a bit more than $100 billion (the phase one bill cost $8.3 billion and concentrated on health care efforts). It “bolsters unemployment insurance,” which makes sense given reports of up to 4.6 million Americans joining the employment segment of the country’s population this month, and $1 billion in food aid. Paid sick leave for employees working within businesses with less than 500 employees is now guaranteed, along with a guarantee allowing employees to take a three month emergency leave from work.
Businesses are being compensated through tax credits, according to ABC. But that’s all the aid those businesses have gotten through the first two phases of the stimulus work: Phase three is rumored to include the now infamous “$1,000 for every American” checks idea Trump and his Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin introduced this week (note: Massachusetts Representative Joe Kennedy has his own version of this) as a part of a $1 trillion stimulus package that will also include $150 billion for economic sectors the federal government identifies as “distressed” from the negative economic shift.
The two obvious sectors are the airline and hospitality sectors—airlines are looking for $50 billion in loans and obviously do not include small businesses, while the hospitality sector is being ravaged by social distancing, self-quarantines and, in the Bay Area, shelter-in-place orders. Politico’s evening newsletter said that reports are the payroll tax Trump’s administration has been asking for for weeks has been dropped from ideas that will be included in the third package. What is included is more money—$300 billion worth, actually—for more loan programs for small businesses to lean on in the intermediate.
It’s not clear whether the Federal Reserve’s previous incentivization of loans for small businesses has worked, but the question of if small businesses will be able to pay those loans off after the economic downturn finishes lingers over proceedings. My educated hunch is no—Mnuchin said that without immediate stimulus for small businesses, the U.S. is looking at a 20 percent projected unemployment rate. I’m guessing the economy wouldn’t have laid off 15-17 percent of the workforce if loans were projected to save their businesses. Business owners aren’t sure this downturn is 100 percent due to coronavirus-related economic pressures.
Let’s compare the world economy to a train: That train is currently hurtling through an extremely dark tunnel (how dark? Turn on dark mode on Twitter and then just...scroll!) and there’s no guarantee of an economic windfall at the end of that tunnel in each economic sector. It’s more likely that loans, if taken advantage of, would just flatten the economic curve airlines and hospitality industry companies—from hotels to restaurants to food manufacturers, distributors, and brokerages.
It’s not clear how those businesses are making up the revenue lost during either the weeks or months they’re either out of commission or operating at greatly-reduced capacity during—their business is being taken up by grocery stores and, in the case of hotels, people’s own houses. One (1) quick Google later, and I can see Deloitte had Travel (not the entire hospitality industry) at around the $1 trillion mark in terms of revenue in 2017.
Presumably, those numbers grew the last two years and have now gone from, let’s ballpark it and say the sector went from averaging $83.3 billion in revenue to this month earning...I mean let’s be nice and say they’ve only lost 50 percent of revenues: $40 billion in earnings. That puts every single small organization involved in that industry either out of business or with their entire employee base laid off with nowhere to go until the sector recovers its earnings potential when the era of social distancing ends.
If this continues, that $40 billion number is going to seriously dwindle as American excess (shoutout to every restaurant in the Seaport that’s charging $30-50+ a plate) dwindles during this crisis. If small businesses take a loan and pay employees instead of laying them off, the load hangs over that business’s metaphorical head the moment normal business resumes and it’s time to pay off every single expense the loan took care of, extending the economic crisis into the following months.
Though businesses may be earning 100 percent of the revenue they got before the pandemic began, they still have to pay employees for the work they’re doing during the new theoretical economic upswing while also paying off the loan that got the business through the crisis—and they’ll need to do so after having missed out on either weeks or months of revenue earlier in the year.
How large each loan is combined with how much cash businesses had on hand going into the outbreak (little to none? Do small businesses run on giant margins? I don’t know of any?) could directly determine how many more hospitality companies go belly-up in the months after the crisis ends, theoretically slowing the entire economy’s growth due to, again, increased unemployment.
Hey, at least the airlines are guaranteed to be fine.
ABC News said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has said he sees a recession coming, and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said lawmakers aren’t leaving Washington until phase three is completed. Bad news though: Two congressmen have tested positive for COVID-19 and are headed into isolation (a staffer was diagnosed with the virus last week). The clock is ticking on getting Congress, which is filled with older people particularly at risk of contracting and being gravely sickened by COVID-19, to a safer place than its chambers—remote voting is not (currently!) allowed.
I’m not an economist, but based on the hypothetical I, an idiot with a calculator who’s taken Micro and Macro and knows how to read charts, just presented above, this is the federal government’s most critical week since...well, since last week when it was working on phase two, and it begins this morning, because it’s hard not to see phase three as the final phase of stimulus this country’s going to get for the foreseeable future.
Well...if it totally sucks they’ll do a phase four. It’s like the opposite of the Marvel movies I guess—the worse the phases get, the more the federal government will do. If Marvel’s phases one and two were as non-fulfilling as the federal government’s first two efforts to save the American economy, nobody ever would’ve learned Kevin Feige’s name. But $1 trillion in stimulus could absolutely make the difference in how long of a downturn we’re looking at—it’s not like all hope is lost, and the government deserves credit for getting as much money as possible to the most critical sectors of the economy (healthcare, hospitals, and the unemployed) as soon as possible. It does mean that phase three deserves a lot more scrutiny and requires far more details to be released over the coming days.
Education Turns a New, Virtual Page This Week—But The Last Month of Decisions Could Haunt Them
High schools and colleges across the country are closing. I’m not superman, my expertise is Boston area colleges. So let’s concentrate on them…
Institutions that shut their campuses down over the last two weeks look like they were far ahead of the curve as day breaks this Thursday morning. The two most notable holdouts, Boston University and Northeastern University, over the matter of closing campuses caved this week after a Northeastern student on campus tested positive for COVID-19. Northeastern made it three days between declaring their campus open but instruction online—a decision that flew in the face of other Massachusetts institutions such as Harvard, MIT, and Boston College to close things down, only allowing 300-500 students on a need-basis to remain on campus—and closing the campus down. A day later, the university declared that a student had presumptively tested positive for COVID-19.
The universities that closed things down early gave residents between five and seven days to abandon the various premises—Northeastern could only give its students three days and BU (who made it a couple days longer than Northeastern did before requiring that students head home) gave its students five, and also flipped on its previous position not to pro-rate dorm charges and opted to refund students and their families for the unused dorm time.
Universities were put in an unprecedented bind when campuses began to close over the last two weeks—in fact, the scuttlebutt on America’s first choice for news (the internet) was that students were pissed they had to head home, potentially robbed of senior weeks and the like. Now, it’s possible the dialogue is going to head in the direction I thought things were going to go when 3,000 students petitioned BC to take classes online: Did colleges act fast enough?
I’m going to blow your mind with this response: Literally no idea if they managed it correctly.
How could I? I haven’t seen a single college pull the curtain back on the backroom deliberations that have led to mass shutdowns across the country.
But I can figure out whether they acted quick enough regarding shutting down international programs—that s—t is easy: Any university that waited for the CDC to categorize the entire globe as a Level 3 health risk to shut down its international programs were approximately 10-30 days behind on that decision. The coronavirus infection curve—you know it by it’s pet name: “The Curve, which needs to be flattened” (stay inside!)—abroad, specifically in Europe and Asia, is about 10-30 days ahead of the United States depending on who you believe. If you’re generous and say Europe’s infection curve is 10 days ahead of the U.S. one, then colleges should’ve shut down its abroad programs 10 days before it shut down its campuses.
That absolutely did not happen. I haven’t found a single school that pulled the plug on every one of its abroad programs 10 days before it shut its own local campus. Individual programs in Italy, South Korea, and China were cancelled early, but only because they reached the Level 3 risk point in the eyes of the CDC earlier than the rest of the continents those countries call home.
By waiting, universities put each of its students abroad at risk for virus exposure and infection, creating new vectors of transmission that put entire communities that abroad students are returning to within the U.S. at risk—see the four BC students that are either COVID-19 positive or presumptive positive.
Perhaps it’s not fair to ask universities to act without CDC guidance, but no government or government program is a nimble entity. There are partisan powers at play, and until this week The White House and Trump were massively pushing back against the potential large-scale ramifications of the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. Universities push back against or ignore government guidelines all the time if they disagree with a federal decision and they aren’t bound by law to obey it.
I’m not convinced that colleges shouldn’t be held accountable for acting at the same speed at the CDC when doctors and various medical establishments have been preaching for far longer than the Trump administration has that COVID-19 was a major problem. The coronavirus wasn’t a pandemic until it was, but that was only because the level of outbreak hasn’t reached pandemic levels yet—the infection curves already told the world where we were headed, there wasn’t much to read into when it comes to the data available: We, the world, have been staring at a deadly pandemic for long enough, particularly in Europe and especially once the Italian health care system was overwhelmed and the north part of the country was shut down. The shut down didn’t mean Europe was saved, it meant Europe’s time as being outside of vectors of COVID-19 transmission was coming to an end, and institutions of higher learning chose to wait until the last possible second. It’s a choice—one I don’t think anyone will look back on as being particularly safe.
But the pressure on universities has not relented—ironically, BC is the college that has made a move on this front sooner than anyone else: Students across the country are asking for colleges to make the classes they’re now finishing online “pass/fail.”
Pass/fail is most easily explained through the BC example: Yesterday, BC sent out letters to its community noting that, if students want, they can now declare a course “pass/fail” until April 30. If a student does that, that class will no longer affect the student’s GPA and instead of being assigned a letter and number grade, the student will receive a “Pass” grade if it (they?) is able to maintain a semester grade above a D-. Anything below that and the student gets a failing grade.
BC made the decision, with some caveats for individual nursing, biology, and public health classes before student pressure could hit any sort of a fever pitch—a petition has been begun that is asking for the university to make Pass/Fail grades mandatory this semester rather than voluntary, which I assume will not happen (the petition was started right around the time the University went to voluntary Pass/Fail and at the time of me writing this only has 99 signatures). That petition does, however, note that students at 45 other universities are petitioning their own administrations to make the change to Pass/Fail—it’s clearly an issue students nationwide are massively concerned about.
Sweat The Details: It’s Quick-Hitter Time on BC, The Presidential Primary, and The Virus Timeline
Recap of the week in Massachusetts: Boston Mayor Marty Walsh ordered Boston restaurants and bars to go takeout-only starting on Tuesday, and an hour later Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker issued the same edict for eateries statewide. Dine-in-only institutions are allowed to do takeout, even if they don’t have a permit for it, while the state fights the pandemic through social distancing. The measures were instituted after people wouldn’t stop going out last weekend (you’re not going to believe this but Twitter was extremely mad at South Boston, which was very busy). The governor has said rumors that Boston or Massachusetts will go into shelter-in-place are not true.
Since last publishing, BC has done a bunch of stuff: Here are my tweets about Pass/Fail and I’ll link to BC’s statements about the decision again here and here. The university issued a campus update on Tuesday shutting libraries down, as well as disclosing that 500 students remain on campus. They are all living on upper, and I crunched the numbers (looked up stuff in the fact book): Upper can handle up to 1,999 people, including staff necessary to police the place. It’s clear upper is not full, and exemptions were not given due to space related issues. Summer abroad, which apparently was not previously cancelled, is now cancelled. Dining halls are open, but for takeout only (they’re under the same guidelines as all restaurants in the state).
Former Vice President Joe Biden defeated Senator Bernie Sanders in more primaries. The two debated last Sunday, which I predicted would be an extremely important moment. The two were bickering over Biden’s decisions 25-30 years ago and Sanders’ prior votes against gun control legislation before the first hour was over. I don’t think I was right. The way they talked about the virus was interesting, but it was a very typical debate beyond that. I dislike being wrong about things. Sanders has said he’s remaining in the race, but currently concentrating on his job in the Senate as Congress works on the aforementioned phase three aid.
The Dorchester Reporter broke that a Dorchester hospital will be the first COVID-19 specific care center for the foreseeable future.
There’s a bunch of stories that The Crimson and The Heights have done on the issues students are facing in these...odd days. Want to read them? They’re all over both publications’ homepages and almost all of them are either extremely insightful or just plain old insightful.
House Democrats have presented their initial proposals for what should go in the phase three stimulus package: $2,000 for every American adult, $1,000 for every child, consumer and small business credit payments should be suspended, lost revenues for creditors should be reimbursed by the Federal Reserve, negative credit reporting should be suspended, as should debt collection, repossession, and wage garnishment, $5 billion in homeless assistance, a ban on evictions and foreclosures, and suspended rental and utility payments. The progressive internet world has noted the plan looks strikingly similar to the one Senator Bernie Sanders has posted as a part of his campaign platform. Since I better do some both-sides-ing, here’s former Vice President Joe Biden’s posted plan.
The NFL Free Agency Merry-Go-Round is Spinning Fast Enough That I Absolutely Can’t Keep Up
Here is ESPN’s tracker, which covers trades and signings. Here are Bill Barnwell’s grades on the biggest moves including: Tom Brady to Tampa Bay, Teddy Bridgewater to Carolina, Philip Rivers to Indianapolis, the Stefon Diggs to Buffalo trade, and the trade sending DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth round pick to Arizona for David Johnson and a second rounder (sorry Houston).
The Athletic’s Jeff Howe also chimed in on how the Patriots, who are currently being stripped of a number of “familiar faces,” move forward (paywall, apologies if you aren’t subscribed).
Which brings us to…
Tom Brady is Heading to Tampa Bay Because Their Stadium Looks Cool in Madden and I Am “Not Upset”
Alright look I’m really upset but there’s a pandemic, and the constant stream of new positive tests, rising death toll, and testing-related issues—alongside a now-dwindling mask supply!—has provided a pleasant reprieve from the departure of the sports figure that has defined the past two decades of unparalleled sporting success in New England and Boston.
Based on the six other departures, the Patriots didn’t only show Tom Brady the door, but the fact that they did is both galling and simultaneously not surprising at this point. ESPN’s Jeff Darlington almost reached the point of literally screaming from the rooftops that Brady was on the way out, and after that the only hope New England fans had was that Bill Belichik is known for rewarding veterans for past exemplary performance year after year.
Just kidding! I think the full list of Patriots who retired here before Bill shipped them out the door are Troy Brown, Tedy Bruschi, and...Matt Light? Yeah I just checked he retired here. Thought he might’ve gotten a look with, like, the Dolphins or something.
Guess not.
Hey, it works to some degree. Veterans want more money, they bring marketing advantages and name brand recognition, as well as what’s supposed to be guaranteed on-the-field success, which isn’t actually true in any sport—old guys tend to result in diminishing returns or no returns at all.
But...couldn’t we have had just this one exception, Bill? Just Tom Brady? He’s Tom F—king Brady! Undisputedly the greatest of all time! Letting him walk out the door is heartbreaking and almost as dirty as Danny Ainge sending Isaiah Thomas out the door for Kyrie Irving.
Jeff Howe said in the article above the following:
“Brady and the Patriots were never really on the same page financially over the past year, according to sources. Last summer, the Pats offered Brady a two-year contract worth $53 million, and Brady obviously declined in favor of the $8 million raise (for $23 million total in 2019) and the freedom to hit free agency in 2020.
“The structure of that two-year offer hasn’t been disclosed. It’s been known Brady wanted guaranteed money in the second year for job security assurances. From the Patriots’ side, even without fully guaranteed money in the contract language, they weren’t ever considering the possibility of actually cutting Brady, but they wanted organizational protection in the same sense Brady coveted job security.
“This offseason, the Patriots never offered Brady a contract. Instead, having gone through the previous round of negotiations in good faith over the summer, the Pats wanted to know what type of contract Brady wanted this time around. Brady, in turn, never brought his financial demands to the table before agreeing to join the Buccaneers.”
Lovely. Look, Tom Brady is my idol successful at everything I am not successful at (relationships, athletics, and money—though I have no children so I think that’s a win for me over him? That’s pretty subjective at this point though. His content creation putes mine to shame.). His picture hangs over my bed in my parents’ house. His jersey is the only one I’ve worn since I grew out of my Corey Dillon one in like 2005. It may be the only one I ever wear. I will miss watching him helm my team in a way I don’t know I can even fathom yet.
Getting to watch Tom Brady play quarterback for my team was like winning the lottery every year for 20 years in a row. I will miss it dearly. I wish I could’ve somehow given that experience to all the people who hate him, who hate the Patriots, who hate the coach who is betting his legacy on dumping his greatest acolyte, because maybe then everyone who hated him could see why we love him so much. I assume Detroit Red Wings Fans who watched Yzerman, San Francisco 49er fans who’ve basically watched anyone who has played for them, and Edmonton Oiler fans who watched the ’80s teams are the only fans who really understand what it’s like to watch pure perfection play out in front of your eyes, for the team that serves as a representation of your city.
It’s a genuinely moving experience. It allows losers like me who try to downplay emotion or older dudes who gave emotion up at age 18 to remember what it’s like to feel about stuff.
I don’t know, I’m not breaking any new ground here. Rooting for Tom Brady has been the delight of my life, and it certainly doesn’t end because Bill Belichik is a cold f—king bastard. Whether the old man is right or not doesn’t matter to me—in the same way I’m rationally livid Mookie Betts has shipped out to Los Angeles, I’m irrationally livid with Belichik for doing the exact same thing he’s done for 20 years to the sports figure that’s defined my entire lifetime of fandom—I barely remember Drew Bledsoe in 1999, I can only just remember Ty Law returning the first Kurt Warner interception for a touchdown in early 2001. Tom Brady, in a way, is my entire sports fandom—the exemplification of my disconnect from the Boston sports fans who lived through Red Sox and Patriots futility for 86 years (many fewer, but just as embarrassing—if not more so—years in the Patriots’ case).
Brady is the reason Bob Kraft has power in the NFL, the reason the Kraft group has built up a small world around Gillette Stadium. The black hole Brady’s departure leaves in his wake will never be filled again.
They should induct him into the Patriots hall of fame right now. And his jersey should be retired...I mean literally right now. It’s shameful it hasn’t been done yet.
I hope Bruce Arians’ hats keep Tom happy—his receivers certainly will.
Tom Brady is, was, and will always be the best in my mind. I’ll always think of him as a Patriot and as the sports figure every athlete who comes through this town will always have to live up to.
NHL Offseason Preview: SHEA on The Pittsburgh Penguins, feat. Goaltender Contracts!!
By Tom Shea
[Note from Goldman: Tom and I are starting NHL offseason previews this week. The cap implications of the coronavirus are potentially massive, so I’m sure we’ll return to these projections over the course of the next six months to update them. But, NHL teams’ specific situations, and the tools we have to evaluate them, are advanced enough that we can somewhat accurately project what each team in the league is looking at when it comes to 2020-21. Special thanks to Cap Friendly and EvolvingWild.com for their interactive tools and contract projections, which are all perfect and remarkable and nothing we’re going to be doing is possible without them.]
To satiate my brain during this humdrum time, I’ll be inundating the masses with previews of how each team’s 2020-21 cap situation might play out. I’ll start with my Penguins, whose three-year Cup drought has me on the cross street of insanity and despair. I’ll break down each team’s three corps (forwards, defensemen, and goalies), ordered from most to least certain. I’ll suggest what I think they should do and what I think they’ll really do (spoiler alert: they rarely align. Not quite sure which side that says more about). Given Elliotte Friedman’s recent report I’m assuming a $81.5 million cap. For the sake of this argument, we’ll pretend that compliance buyouts won’t be a part of the offseason equation—for now.
Penguins
Current total allocation: $68.3M ($4.3M/player)
Total spots to fill: 6 ($13.2M remaining)
Most certain: Defense
Current allocation: $20.3M ($3.4M/dman)
Spots to fill: 1
The roadmap here is fairly clear. Kris Letang with Brian Dumoulin should and will likely be untouchable. Justin Schultz will mercifully walk as an unrestricted free agent. His last 2 years were atrocious, though injuries played a substantial role. The only other news on this front is the Marcus Petterson extension, which is pretty solid value (~$4M/year) for a guy who’s shown he can play on the 2nd pair. For reference, it’s basically the same deal Olli Maatta got, but back when the cap was $10M lower.
It’s no secret that the quickest improvement cap-wise would be to can Jack Johnson. But I’m not gonna lament any further because it’s just not going to happen. Coach Sullivan thought highly enough of him to put him on the top pair with Letang when Dumoulin went down (in fairness this was likely in part to keep the highly effective Pettersson-John Marino pair in-tact). Dumo ought to be protected like the bubble boy next year, as his value is additionally boosted by who his replacement is.
As far as filling that final spot, it remains to be seen what the Pens’ approach will be. The top two pairs are pretty secure with Dumo-Letang and Petterson-Marino. But there’s a need for a second power play triggerman: Though Schultz’s recent performance with the man advantage certainly won’t be missed, his past contributions to those Cup teams will be. Unfortunately, the free agent class this year is pretty bleak, so the Pens may have to insource their own solution.
Options within the organization are relatively limited. P.O. Joseph is intriguing, but he could probably use another year of seasoning in Wilkes-Barre. The best bet might be to see if 22-year-old Marino can develop into that guy. Resigning Juusi Riikola on the cheap and shackling him with Johnson makes for at least a competent bottom pair, with Chad Ruhwedel as the 7th man. They could be one injury away from dire straits, but there’s really no panacea short of an “all our bad guys for all their good guys!” trade. Marino’s emergence really ties everything together. Though not a deep group, they should be at least a solid one.
Prediction: Riikola resigns for a 1 year, 6 figure deal. Nothing else changes.
Medium certainty: Forwards
Current allocation: $47.9M ($4.8M/forward)
Spots to fill: 3
Though three spots might not seem like chump change, it’s more so about filling out the edges. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust and Jason Zucker are all locks for the top six, and possibly Patric Hornqvist as well. I’d think they’ll let Conor Sheary walk, seeing as how they already canned him once before—he was mostly brought back under duress when they needed center depth alongside Evan Rodrigues. That final wing spot really isn’t much of an issue given that whoever fills the spot will be buoyed by one of the two best centers on the planet.
The bottom six, meanwhile, is a bit more dubious. Nick Bjugstad is the token trade chip nowadays—he’s somehow been almost as disappointing as Derick Brassard. In a capless utopia, I don’t think he makes much sense to trade because 1) he wouldn’t command much as a rental and 2) they’d be selling him at his absolute nadir. But the revenue lost from games missed will create a cap crunch, and the forwards are more likely to weather the effects than the defense. Teddy Blueger or Evan Rodrigues would be yet another member of the 3rd line center carousel (8 this past decade, could be its own sporcle quiz).
The Pens will fill a couple of the openings from within. Evolving Wild’s contract projections have Jared McCann making ~$3.3M, and Dom Simon ~$2.1. Both could be cap casualties as well; they’re solid players but they benefit from the surrounding talent. Wing is also the least of the Pens’, and most teams’, worries. But they should be back depending on where the salary numbers for the goalies land.
That leaves some interesting options for the final spot. Last year’s first round pick Samuel Poulin is mauling the QMJHL, much like Daniel Sprong a few years ago. However, he will regrettably be victimized by the inane rule that you must be at least 20 to play in the AHL, so it will be the big club or bust. Recent collegiate signing Drew O’Connor could be in play as well. Regardless, we’re talking about 1 spot out of 13, so there’s plenty of cheap options. Overall, it’s a group teeming with scoring options; it’s just a matter of how the pieces fall together.
Prediction: Bjugstad gets purged for draft pick(s) and Pens GM Jim Rutheford chooses to hold onto McCann and Simon instead to give his prospects time to improve, Rodrigues comes back. Slight chance of one more trade.
Least certain: Goalies
Current allocation: Zilch
Spots to fill: 2
This is not only the most ambiguous corps on the Pens, but one of the biggest question marks of any goaltending situation in the league. Matt Murray’s the incumbent for now, but he’s played his way out of a bigtime contract. Since signing his three-year bridge deal, his only saving grace is a stellar 2018-19 season, sandwiched between a below average one and a poor one. Even after factoring in the two Cup seasons, his career NHL numbers are actually only around league average. Fortunately for Murray, his name brand alone should net him at least some sort of a raise. It makes sense to keep him for now, though possibly on a 1 year deal, and hope his value levels off. But Murray’s leash is getting tight.
His primary competitor, should he be re-signed as well, would be Tristan Jarry. Jarry ostensibly had a phenomenal season, basically creating a timeshare with Murray, but delta save % pointed to him being closer to average. Not that that’s a bad thing; Murray couldn’t even crack a .900 save %, a threshold all sans maybe a couple of starting goalies clear each year. But a bridge deal with a nice raise is the move so the team can get a better look than 33 games. If he beats Murray again in a 1A/1B scenario, then the decision to move on from Murray becomes much easier.
A lurking component here is Casey DeSmith. If the Pens decide to sell Jarry high or cut bait with Murray, they can unbury DeSmith from Wilkes-Barre for a great cheap backup option. He’s signed for two more years at an exceedingly reasonable $1.25M. Worst case scenario, DeSmith stays the third guy and the Pens have great injury assurance; DeSmith starting a playoff game isn’t quite as apocalyptic as Jeff Zatkoff. DeSmith’s value is also enhanced by the Murray injury bug. Regardless of what happens with the other two, he shouldn’t be going anywhere.
Prediction: Murray takes a qualifying offer for ~$5M, Jarry signs a 2 year bridge for ~$2.5M/per
Net Result: $705,525 in cap space: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1680080
Big picture:
Outside the goaltending, there’s really not much that could potentially change here. Expect Murray and Jarry both to return so the team can finally settle the debate. We’ll see a new forward or two, but for the most part they’ll run back last year’s squad. We’re not used to defensive minded Pens teams, but Sully’s honed them into a staunch group (7th in xGA/60 last year). The middling power play must improve, but a second dman emerging should go a long way. They should be near the top of the Metro once again, and a deep playoff run is more than feasible.
How Leagues Should Reopen WHEN They Reopen
By Jack Goldman
I don’t know if I needed that byline, maybe if I left it blank it would’ve been obvious it was me again? I don’t know.
Consensus on the old continent (Europe) is that its premier soccer league (The English Premier League) shouldn’t award its title this year because the league leaders, Liverpool, have not mathematically clinched the title yet.
Now, when people say they haven’t mathematically clinched the title yet, let me be clear: Liverpool are currently leading by 25 points, though second place Manchester City have a game in hand. The largest margin the league has ever been won by is 19 points. Liverpool could have mathematically clinched last weekend if games were played.
We’re not talking about a margin where Liverpool needed another month to clinch the league, they were days away.
If the EPL doesn’t resume play, which I don’t think is realistic—Premier League football will probably resume behind closed doors sometime late in the spring or this summer—Liverpool should absolutely be awarded the title. To me, promotion should take place and relegation should not, and then more teams should be relegated in the following season.
Why do I think this? Because this is an extraordinary event and it requires extraordinary measures. The Champions League places that are up for grabs should be determined via a mini tournament involving the relevant contenders: Manchester United, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Sheffield United, Tottenham Hotspur, and Arsenal.
If it were up to me, it would be bracket style with Manchester and Wolves on a bye due to their higher points tallies. You think Chelsea should be in that tournament? I have bad news for you: They’re in the Champions League next year, Manchester City is getting banned from Europe. Think Burnley should be in the tournament? I have bad news for you: If you’re not a top nine premier league team, I don’t consider you as being in contention for Europa league places. Burnley are under 40 points through 29 games, Arsenal made it to 40 through 28 games. There’s a gap there, and I’m deciding that’s the gap that eliminates Burnley from Europe. Why don’t I care? Because deep down I really think there shouldn’t be a tournament and it should just be awarded as is: Whoever is currently first through seventh (Manchester City excluded) gets the Champions and Europa League places. Eighth and ninth shouldn’t even be eligible, but the points difference (the fifth through ninth place teams are separated by only five points total) make a tournament for qualification more satisfying.
What I don’t think should happen is that the league is just suspended and wiped away. There are 38 games in a premier league season. We’re basically missing nine of those fixtures. That’s not enough to wipe an entire season away, and the EPL is easier to manage since the teams are more stratified. Relegating teams in this environment isn’t fair—so either don’t or do a tournament in the summer for the teams facing relegation. I think not relegating is a much simpler solution, and the Football Association can deal with an increased fixture list next year by getting rid of the League Cup.
Other leagues in Europe are too complicated and niche for me to go into, but I have good news: I have plenty of thoughts about our favorite leagues in this newsletter: the NBA and NHL! The NBA season is close enough to wrapping up that they should have a play in tournament for the playoffs involving seeds seven through 10 in both conferences when play resumes, followed by the normal playoff bracket. If that involves too much basketball, switch the first round back to a best of five series.
Don’t bore me with “how are we going to ramp up to play games” conversations—round robin tournaments or flat out exhibitions behind closed doors will do the trick. Think exhibitions won’t work? Hold a tournament called “The Quest for the Kobe Bryant Trophy” and make it March Madness, but pro basketball. Byes for higher seeds and you’re off and running.
Congratulations, I just made basketball a billion dollars and if hockey doesn’t follow in the NBA’s footsteps with a “Gretzky Trophy,” that’s not my problem—it’s theirs.
Now, hockey does have one difference that could require a slight change in plans—the NHL first round actually matters and features some of the most exciting nights on the ice of the entire NHL league year. Since best of five’s aren’t on the table, and limiting players’ potential for injuries is still important, perhaps instead of a shorter first round, the NHL needs to shorten its 2020-21 season. Even chopping five to seven games off next year’s schedule could save a month of the NHL offseason when teams can recover, whereas basketball doesn’t have to schedule in that time if they shorten their playoffs (the NBA first round is generally quite bad and there’s years of precedent that series are improved by being five games).
Stadium availability/coronavirus problems force things behind closed doors? If WWE and AEW can perform wrestling without a crowd, I’m sure f—king soccer, basketball, and hockey can. Neutral sites may be safer than playing in home arenas, so pick a few spots—or even practice arenas!s—and go nuts.
So there you go: I just solved every league’s problem at 5am on a Thursday. The idiots in the boardrooms should be able to salvage the season just fine on their own, but if you need to present anyone evidence that this s—t isn’t hard to handle, just show them this column. Nine-hundred words and every major league America pays attention to is taken care of with minimal issues.
We can do this. Sports will come back. Hang in there people!
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*I lied. Sorry. Context clues people, the intro for this thing took up a full page on the old Google Docs this week, you could’ve put the pieces together and figured out what a monster you were in for. This is your fault not mine. Congrats on making it to the end. Send me an email if you did and I’ll send you my equivalent of merch: a LEGO movie clip.
See you next week, or check out @the_manofgold for when updates that are guaranteed to come start inching through the pipeline.
Jack Goldman is the publisher of this here newsletter and an independent reporter who in his spare time goes to Boston College. You shouldn’t follow him on Twitter @the_manofgold and you definitely shouldn’t hit that button down there and subscribe to A View Off a Ledge.