100 Paragraphs on 100 Free Agents
Our second newsletter of the week is 100% distraction content, brought to you by Tom Shea.
Well, it’s 100 paragraphs on 100 free agents...we promise we won’t do 100 quick hitters again until the next time we do it. By we, I mean Jack Goldman and Tom Shea—contract details plus anything in italics is Jack, everything else is Tom. Thanks to Spotrac and ESPN for the various numbers littered throughout. It should be noted that most of the players here who’ve been given the franchise tag are at least considering signing an extension instead, with Dak Prescott seeming the closest to signing an extension and A.J. Green seemingly the most likely to be forced to either play while tagged or traded away.
Arizona Cardinals
Kenyan Drake, RB (1 year, $8.5 million via transition tag) – The transition tag here was a no brainer. He’s a solid tier below then Derrick Henry’s of the world who merit the full tag, but Drake has consistently put up solid numbers, even under Adam Gase—which should count double…or at least x1.5. Getting the Bill O’Brien lifeline was just the icing on top.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR (1 year, $11 million guaranteed) – Remarkably still effective at 36, with hands surer than the stock market (thought of this joke a couple months ago), he ranked 17th in catches among receivers last year. Fitz gets a one-year deal with some potential incentives that could earn him an extra million that is perfectly becoming of a guy who’s still trying to see what he’s got.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR (Traded to Arizona along with a fourth-round pick by HOU for David Johnson, a second-round pick, and a 2021 fourth-round pick) – I’ll be brief, since entire pieces are being written about this. If there truly was an O’Brien-Hopkins beef, then they obviously should’ve chosen to get rid of the marginally above .500 coach and not the surefire top 2 receiver in the league. As far as the Cardinals end of the deal, he perfectly complements Fitz’s slot presence with elite jump-ball prowess. If Kyler takes it to another level this season, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with.
Jordan Phillips, DT (Dismissing cap manipulations: 3 years, $30 million, varying guarantees but probably $18.5 million ultimately guaranteed) – Kliff is being tasked with building a real defense for the 1st time in his coaching career. Phillips is a great step in that direction. He bolsters a d-line unit that ranked 20th in opponent yards per carry. It’s a bit surprising Buffalo let him ago, as they the run D is a bit of a weakness for them as well. [This contract is a nightmare in terms of determining how much Phillips will actually make and how long he’s guaranteed to be on the team. Here’s how Spotrac has it and here’s a local breakdown via the Sports Illustrated micro-site covering the team. Apologies if I haven’t understood the stipulations correctly.]
Atlanta Falcons
Tyeler Davison, DT (3 years, $12 million, $4.5 guaranteed) – Basically the Jordan Phillips description, except the Falcons are retaining their own guy: This is another offense that will get a ton of fanfare—deservedly so—but it won’t mean squat if they channel my mid-2010’s Steelers who couldn’t get a stop (PIT hit its defensive nadir in 2014 when the Steelers ranked 30th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, despite going 11-5 that year), even if you offered them a lifetime supply of Charmin Ultra (what an unintended harbinger that piece was) [Shameless plug: Click here and then scroll until you see SHEA in all-caps if you want to read Tom’s last, extended reference to Charmin Ultra which I must again emphasize does not sponsor this newsletter despite Tom’s best efforts.]
Hayden Hurst, TE (4 years, $11 million, but more likely 2 years, $8.57 million guaranteed) – Hurst is a solid Austin Hooper contingency plan. It’s not bad value for a guy two years removed from being a 1st rounder. He ranked 4th in yards among backup tight ends and should continue to improve.
Dante Fowler, LB (3 years, $48 million, guarantees unknown) – Fowler gets his payday after finally turning it around with Rams last year. He’s the closest thing the Falcons can find as a Vic Beasley replacement, who hasn’t replicated his 2016 season when he led the league in sacks but remains a defensive force (see the Titans section below for more details).
Todd Gurley, RB (1 year, $6 million, guarantee unknown, pending physical) – The Falcons are hedging the whole “we have the best knowledge of his medical specs” logic the Rams are purporting, albeit just for 1 year. Even with Atlanta footing some of the bill (Gurley has already been paid a $7.5 million guarantee by the Rams this offseason), it’s still a decent payday for a RB in today’s climate. It’s hard to see him improving on last year, which was already meh given his volume (per ESPN: 223 attempts, 857 yards, 3.8 yards per carry, and 12 touchdowns, despite not missing a game—though he had two games with single-digit rushing attempts and only one of those performances was offset with some receiving opportunities).
Baltimore Ravens
Michael Brockers, DT (3 years, $30 million, $21 million guaranteed, potential two-year out) – It’s a big contract for a guy who turns 30 in December, but the move could actually be reactionism/recency bias working in the Ravens’ favor: Derrick Henry flattened them like the curve in the playoffs, but the run D was an issue for Baltimore all year—they ranked 21st in opponent yards per rush in 2019.
Calais Campbell, DE(Traded to Baltimore from JAX for a 5th round pick) – It’s a pretty solid deal for both sides—the Ravens went into this offseason needing run-stopping support, while the Jaguars entered the spring needing fewer good players. It speaks volumes of how we value QBs that Campbell fetched less than Nick Foles, but I digress. Even at 33, he should still make a huge impact.
Jimmy Smith, CB (1 year, $6 million, $3.5 million guaranteed per CBS Sports) – A steal of a contract, if only for a year, for an aging (Smith turns 32 in July), but still valuable, member of a formidable cornerback unit. Only caveat is he’s gotta stay on the field: Smith has missed 20 games over the last 4 seasons.
Matt Judon, OLB, DE (1 year, $15.8 million via franchise tag) – Judon has become a great late-round pick story—think Antonio Brown without the warrants and the psychosis. The franchise tag was probably to be expected, as they look to see what they truly have with him coming off a breakout year.
Buffalo Bills
Mario Addison, DE (3 years, $30 million, $15 million guaranteed) – Addison is an older (he turns 33 in September) but solid edge rusher who was a victim of the purge in Carolina. There’s an out after the first year that would shave $3 million off Addison’s guarantee if Bills management decides he isn’t the same player anymore—I don’t think that’s happening before the out clause expires, though.
Vernon Butler, DT (2 years, $15 million, $7.8 million guaranteed after year one, another $1.5 million if the Bills opt to hold onto him for the second year) – Butler is another Carolina transplant, and a former 1st round pick just finishing up his rookie deal. It’s a solid deal to replace the aforementioned Jordan Phillips.
Stefon Diggs(Traded to Buffalo along with Minnesota’s seventh round pick for the Bills’ first, fifth, and sixth round picks) – Believe it or not, this deal served a purpose other than to show that Bill O’Brien may actually not be smarter than a 5th grader. The Bills have been starved for a reliable skill position guy since they realized not even a 2 trillion-dollar federal injection could insure Sammy Watkins. It’s a steep price, but they’re doing right by Josh Allen, who the entire city of Buffalo is hoping can make another leap this year into franchise QB territory, as he enters the back 9 of his rookie deal.
Josh Norman, CB (1 year, $8 million, $6 million guaranteed) – The Skins [thunder clap] were such a mess last year that bringing in Norman is a worthwhile gamble, even though he and former teammate Cam Newton built the bulk of his reputation off one season. If he plays like even a fraction of his former self, the Bills instantly have one of the best lockdown cornerback tandems in the league.
Carolina Panthers
Teddy Bridgewater, QB (3 years, $63 million, $40 million guaranteed) — This move makes a ton of sense: It’s a steady QB for a new regime. Bridgewater will have Christian McCaffrey, who might be the best check-down option we’ve ever seen (what, I can’t overreact, too?). It’s a 3-year deal with an out after year 2, giving Teddy the perfect window to prove himself. Carolina may be putting the pieces together for a great comeback story. [ESPN published the following headline on their piece about this, which made me laugh: Panthers give Teddy Bridgewater $63 million deal; Cam Newton unhappy. Cam Newton is unhappy? Are you sure? Why would he be unhappy that the Panthers kicked him in the nuts on the way out the door? Are you sure that would engender some sort of negative reaction? Unhappy is one way to describe how Cam felt, who then went in the Panthers IG comments to post in some weird young people font that he was pissed off, but I probably would’ve selected a different word.]
Russell Okung, OT(Traded to Carolina from LAC for Trai Turner) – obviously they’re protecting the Bridgewater investment. But beyond that he provides great leadership (he’s a spokesman for the player’s union) for a young team looking for direction. He should still have a solid couple years left in the tank. [When I tossed Russell Okung into the Google machine to do more research, the third thing that popped up was that he’s taken an interest in bitcoin. Thought you should know he was engaging in bitcoin conversations in his free time. Good luck to the Panthers this fall!]
Chicago Bears
Nick Foles, QB(Traded to Chicago from JAX for a compensatory 4th round pick) – Another good mutual deal for both the Bears and the Jags. It should be an open competition with Mitch Trubisky that could run through the preseason. It’s a win-win: If Mitch gets the gig, Chicago will extend him and use an out in Foles’ contract they can trigger after the 2020 season to can the former Jags, Eagles, Rams, and Chiefs signal-caller. If the Corpulent C—k triumphs, then a team that’s trying to win now has their guy.
Jimmy Graham, TE (2 years, $16 million, $9 million guaranteed, a no-trade clause for some reason) – Certainly not alone in saying I’m not crazy about this one. Nine million a year is a steep price to pay solely for past performance, plus, tight end is a position that’s fairly easily replenished in the draft. I get adding support receiving pieces for Mitch/Nick, but there’s more cost-efficient ways to do it. [...a no trade clause?]
Robert Quinn, DE (5 years, $70 million, $30 million guaranteed)– he’s an expensive Leonard Floyd replacement, but the dude can still ball and should be a great complement to Khalil Mack. Considering they’re all-in on the present, it’s not the worst move in the world if they truly think he’s an upgrade over Floyd.
Danny Trevathan, LB (3 years, $21.75 million, $13.6 million guaranteed) – This a bargain extension for a stalwart on the good side of 30. It also gives the Bears some continuity amid multiple moving pieces across the roster.
Cincinnati Bengals
A.J. Green, WR (approximately $18 million via the franchise tag) – You’ve got to think the Bengals are still trying to trade Green by giving him the tag. If they really wanted him as an option for projected first-overall pick Joe Burrow, you’d think they just would’ve extended Green at a time when his value is lower than it has been for Green’s entire career thus far. But perhaps they just wanna see where his health’s at—either way, it’s strange that he’s still there.
D.J. Reader, DT (4 years, $53 million, guarantee unknown) – It turns out Bill O’Brien was so worked up over trading an all-time great receiver that he let his promising d-lineman slip through the cracks. Reader turns 24 in July [Everyone on this list is apparently born in July]—he’s a great pickup for a rebuilding team.
Trae Waynes, CB (3 years, $42 million, $15 million guaranteed) – You have to wonder why Minnesota’s turning their entire secondary loose. Waynes is a bit old considering Cincinatt’s big picture situation (rebuilding isn’t easy), but the Bengals could use all the help on defense they can get.
Cleveland Browns
Jack Conklin, OT (3 years, $42 million, $30 million guaranteed) – A Godsend for a team that realized a year too late that real life and fantasy football are two different concepts. He’s a right tackle, so Baker Mayfield’s blindside is still in flux, but we could see Nick Chubb vault into the best back in the league conversation—if he’s not a part of it already.
Kareem Hunt, RB (1 year, $3.2 million, guarantee unknown)– He’s an outstanding insurance policy for Chubb, who had a gruesome knee injury while playing at Georgia. You can say the Browns sold their souls and you’re not wrong, but 31 teams all had a shot at him—if not Cleveland, someone else would have signed him. Such is the way of the NFL.
Austin Hooper, TE (4 years, $42 million, $23 million guaranteed, third-year out-clause) – Ostensibly, it’s a huge overpay when David Njoku put up comparable numbers before he got hurt, but new coach Kevin Stefanski loves his two-tight end sets. It’s an understandable vote of confidence in the new head honcho, even though they could’ve drafted a tight end in a few months to serve the same purpose and have saved the 8 figures.
Karl Joseph, S (1 year, $2.5 million, $500,000 guaranteed) – The Browns defense is great on paper, but safety was a monster hole. It’s interesting the Raiders let Joseph go, considering his old school heavy-hitting style fits Gruden’s bill perfectly. But, it’s a solid flier on a fairly recent 1st rounder at a position of dire need.
Dallas Cowboys
HaHa Clinton-Dix, S (1 year, $5.5 million, $4 million guaranteed) – Outstanding value for $4 million—it’s a bit surprising he’s already on his fourth team. I’d say he’s a Dollar General Byron Jones, but that’s selling him short.
Amari Cooper, WR (5 years, $100 million, $60 million guaranteed, second-year out-clause) – This pretty much had to happen. It’s not necessarily the best value in the world, but Dallas have locked themselves into keep-Dak-happy mode. It’s certainly not a bad deal—Cooper has been a top 10 wideout since joining big D—but now he’s gotta keep it up.
Sean Lee, LB (1 year, $4.5 million, $2 million guaranteed) – “Did you know Sean Lee played all 16 games last year?” is an underutilized icebreaker at parties. He’s been through the ringer and hopefully it’s a harbinger of good health in the future. Either way, it’s low risk at $4.5 million, especially for one of Dallas’ own.
Dontari Poe, DT – Not official yet as of publishing, but a contract seems to be in the works. Still a highly effective nose-tackle even if he doesn’t recapture his KC pro bowl years.
Gerald McCoy, DE (3 years, $18 million, $7 million guaranteed, $9 million if Cowboys hold onto him after year one) – McCoy is older now but still effective. In the grand scheme of things, $7 million isn’t much to pay for a guy who’s only 2 years removed from being a pro-bowler.
Dak Prescott, QB (Currently franchise tagged at around $30 million, team and player in negotiations for a longer deal) – The Cowboys should’ve extended Prescott last year. Obviously, some hindsight factors into that claim, but his numbers were bound to be better after a full year with Amari. There’s no question Prescott is a franchise guy—Dallas just has to hope they work a somewhat-manageable contract out instead of keeping him on the tag, otherwise Dak may be breaking the bank this time next year.
Denver Broncos
A.J. Bouye, CB(Traded to Denver from JAX for a fourth round draft pick)– Bouye was kind of a one-hit wonder in the Jags 2017 storybook run (the kind of book you find in an abandoned/looted Border’s). Still, not a bad pickup for a squad that lost a major piece in Aqib Talib two years ago and now Chris Harris.
Jurrell Casey, DE(Traded to Denver from TEN for...well...) – Just f—king absurd value for a 7th rounder, even at his age (30) and contract ($11.25 million for the next 3 years, with a zero dollar dead cap charge beginning next year if the Broncos want to make Casey go away for some reason). I’m more likely to find the g-spot than I am to understand the NFL trade market.
Justin Simmons, S (1 year, $11.4 million via the franchise tag) – A smart tag for a guy coming off a monster year but with more to prove. Insert obligatory “gotta defend the pass playing Mahomes twice a year” comment here. [It’s not clear if Denver management and Simmons are content to play out the season on the tag or if they’d prefer to come to a long-term agreement. The Broncos and Simmons have until July 15 to agree to an extension—if they want to.]
Melvin Gordon, RB (2 years, $16 million, $13.5 million guaranteed) – This one’s a head-scratcher: Phil Lindsay is not only younger but arguably better, and he’ll command a decent raise after this year. Unless they plan on trading Phil at some point, they’ve pinned themselves into a logjam. Gordon is 26, and it’s hard to tell if this is a “prove-it” deal where the Broncos will trade or cut bait (Gordon’s dead cap number next year is $6.5 million) with the former Wisconsin backfield talisman after a year or if both parties intend to play out the two-year deal and see what comes next.
Detroit Lions
Jamie Collins, LB (3 years, $30 million, $18 million guaranteed, two-year out-clause) – Matt Patricia, you dog, you! He wasn’t able to get his grubby little paws on Gronk, but Jamie is a hell of a consolation prize. Though he’s in his 30’s now, the guy’s a stud on the edge and should inject the Lions with some much-needed life-force on defense.
Duron Harmon, S (Traded to Detroit, along with a seventh-round draft pick, by NE for a fifth-round draft pick) – No amount of Novocaine in the world could’ve consoled Harmon upon finding out about this trade—at least he’ll have a couple buddies alongside him in Detroit. As far as non-rhetoric analysis, he’ll have to do his best to fill the void left by Darius Slay.
Danny Shelton, DT (2 years, $8 million, $4 million guaranteed) – Double M got a Patriot for all 3 units! It’s kinda surprising he came so cheap—60 tackles and 3 sacks are pretty good numbers for a nose tackle. At just 26, he’s the youngest of the big 3, too.
Desmond Trufant, CB (2 years, $20 million, $14 million guaranteed) – Coupled with Harmon, it looks like they’re gonna try to replace Slay by committee. It’s a decent chunk of change, but for a vet who can still play at a position of need it’s well worth it.
Halapoulivaati Vaitai, OT (5 years, $45 million, $20 million guaranteed), two-year out-clause) – Mai Tai Vaitai makes a great complement to Taylor Decker on the other side of the line. They haven’t had a reliable running back since Barry Sanders—this could pave the way for a big Kerryon Johnson season.
Green Bay Packers
Christian Kirksey, LB (2 years, $13 million, $4 million guaranteed, one-year out-clause) – Kirksey is facing a tall order, even for a native Midwesterner. Though not an inside linebacker by trade, he’ll be looked upon by the Sconnies to replace Blake Martinez, with the 2 Smiths firmly entrenched on the outside. He’s also played just 9 games the last 2 seasons—he’s a solid player at a good discount, but we’ll have to see it to believe it.
Rick Wagner, OT (2 years, $11 million, $5.75 million guaranteed, one-year out-clause) – Though not Bryan Bulaga talent-wise, he’ll be Cal Ripken in relative terms of availability at half the price of the Los Angeles-bound Bulaga. Wagner is a solid pickup to help Aaron Jones keep the momentum going.
Houston Texans
Randall Cobb, WR (3 years, $27 million, $18+ million in guarantees [conflicting reports]) – Ladies and gentlemen, yourrr Hopkins replacement! He actually had a nice little resurgence in Dallas in 2019, posting his biggest season in 4 years. The other Texas team will need every last drop of that production to carry over to this fall.
David Johnson, RB(Traded to Houston along with a second-round pick and 2021 fourth-round pick by ARI for DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth-round pick) – Johnson will undoubtedly suffer from the same complex Cobb will endure. It’s a shame his career seems to be derailed. But he’ll give Watson a new wrinkle, albeit not one that’ll offset the one he lost.
Bradley Roby, CB (3 years, $36 million, guarantee unknown) – Roby is a Godsend for a woeful pass defense, one with more holes than an M. Night Shyamalan movie. He won’t fully patch-up the sieve, but he should make a significant impact.
Indianapolis Colts
DeForest Buckner, DT (4 years, $84 million, $44.3 million guaranteed) – No, he’s not the villain in the Lorax movie *crickets* [Frank Reich (screaming): I SPEAK FOR THE F—KING TREES, ASSH—E]. But he did just get a fat payday: The Colts finally cashed in on their ocean of cap space and shored up a defense that was actually closer to average than perceived. If Phil Rivers can cut down his picks to something reasonable like the teens, they could be in business.
Anthony Castonzo, OT (2 years, $33 million, $17 million guaranteed, one-year out-clause) – He’s needed now more than ever, with the straight-laced gargoyle Rivers bracing for impact behind him. It’s a fair 3rd contract for a guy who’s been a loyal soldier for a decade now.
Phil Rivers, QB (1 year, $25 million guaranteed) – The belle of the ball! The father of nine is an unquestionable upgrade over Brissett, who wasn’t half bad in his own right. The quality of weapons should be similar to what he had in LA, with TY now his new Keenan Allen. More likely than not this is his last shot.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Yannick Ngakoue, OLB/DE (1 year, $17.78 million via the franchise tag) – This franchise tag is a bit curious—Ngakoue has been a stud for a few years now, not to mention the Jaguars are a rebuilding team that seemingly wouldn’t want to make expensive short-term investments. They could be on the hook for a huge payday if Ngakoue keeps it up—he’s reportedly asking for a higher contract than what DeMarcus Lawrence has, placing his price tag around the $22 million per year mark.
Joe Schobert, LB (5 years, $53.75 million, $21.5 million guaranteed, two-year out-clause) – Schobert is a young player—he’s just 26—but one who established himself as both a leader and a tackling machine in Cleveland. He’s a perfect fit for a Jags defense that is long removed from the halcyon days of 2017.
Kansas City Chiefs
Chris Jones, DE (1 year, $16.1 million via the franchise tag) – There’s no question Jones is an elite talent. KC is gambling heavily by not giving him a full-fledged extension—Jones himself has said he’s not crazy about the move. Hopefully there’s no riff there—it’d be a shame if the Chiefs end up having to pawn him off for pennies on the dollar.
Las Vegas Raiders
(aka the NFL equivalent of getting used to writing out the new year)
Marcus Mariota, QB (2 years, $17.6 million, only the first year is guaranteed at $7.5 million) – Mariota should give Carr a run for his money. It remains to be seen if they’d actually tailor a playbook to him, though, or if he’ll fall prey to more of the personnel turnover that dogged him in Tennessee (Mariota had 5 different OC’s in 5 seasons).
Jason Witten, TE (1 year, $4 million, $3.5 million guaranteed) – BREAKING: Bygone announcer gets his old head coaching job back and hires his former replacement in the booth. It’d be like if Obama became senator of Illinois again and got Trump onto his congressional staff. This isn’t the worst signing in the world—Witten’s got at least a little left in the tank, but it’s only a matter of time before he hits the wall.
Los Angeles Chargers
Bryan Bulaga, OT (3 years, $30 million, $19.25 million guaranteed) – Bulaga could be a huge pickup who can help protect Tua or Jameis or whoever the hell the Chargers decide they should stick on billboards to put asses in seats this fall. Bulaga has finally put together a pretty clean bill of health over the last 2 years, but we’ll see how long it holds up.
Austin Ekeler, RB (4 years, $24.5 million, $13.75 million guaranteed, two-year out-clause) – The clear cut winner in the battle with Melvin Gordon for the gig, the jury’s out on whether Ekeler can develop into a 3 down back, but his receiving work alone makes this deal worth it.
Hunter Henry, TE (1 year, $10.6 million via the franchise tag) – I like the tag here, since an extension would’ve been costly coming off a huge year. He’s a top-7ish TE if healthy, but therein lies the caveat: If his performance tapers off or he can’t get on the field, he becomes more of a bargain in 2021.
Chris Harris Jr., CB (2 years, $17 million, $9.5 million guaranteed) – Harris’ prime years are behind him, but he’s a Super Bowl champ who can still play. He should form a dynamic tandem with Casey Hayward.
Linval Joseph, DT (2 years, $17 million, $9.5 million guaranteed [not a typo, it’s the exact same contract as Harris’ except Harris is *slightly* easier to cut after one year)– This is a bargain contract for a beast of a nose tackle. Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa can feast even more now than they do already with the amount of attention Joseph will garner inside.
Trai Turner, G(Traded to Los Angeles by CAR for Russell Okung) — Goldman: The Chargers must be more willing to pay for his services than Carolina was—Turner has an extra year on his contract at a slightly lower number than Okung’s, but is reportedly looking for a new contract, according to ESPN, who also noted Turner’s production ranked 29th in the league by Pro Football Focus’ metrics.
Los Angeles Rams
Leonard Floyd, OLB (1 year, $13 million, $10 million guaranteed) – I still find it very strange that the Bears let Floyd go—he turns 28 in September. The Rams get a nice bailout from their hellish cap situation with a cheap, effective player.
Andrew Whitworth, OT (3 years, $30 million, $12.5 million guaranteed) – It’s amazing Whitworth was as good as he was at 37. A 3 year contract is certainly risky, but if the Rams didn’t give him that deal, someone else would’ve. There’s an out after year 2, and the dead cap should he fall off the face of the earth is palatable. A solid move all-around.
Miami Dolphins
Ereck Flowers, G (3 years, $30 million, $19.95 million guaranteed) – Flowers showed promise early on, but quickly became the perfunctory New York market whipping boy—deservedly so. The deal’s a bit expensive in a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world, but it’s the perfect scenario for him: he’s still only 25 and it’s a fresh start in a market where “oh yeah, the Dolphins!” isn’t an infrequent utterance.
Byron Jones, CB (5 years, $82.5 million, $54 million guaranteed) – Can’t say I’m a fan of this one. Jones will still be cashing Dolphins’ checks by the time Miami’s underwater. You’d think they’d have gotten more of a bargain considering he’s not coming off the best season. Don’t get me wrong, he’ll give them some great years on the front end. By the time the Phins are actually competitive again, Jones could be exiting his prime. [Jones does have a three-year out-clause, but the dead cap number will still be $6 million, and the Dolphins would only save $8 million on his $54 million guaranteed salary—not an inordinate amount of cap or cash out relief if the Phins decide to go in another direction after 2022. It’s more likely that Jones will either play out his contract in full in Miami and the Dolphins will have to hope he doesn’t hit his incentive numbers or the Phins will need to make a trade despite Jones’ enormous cap hit.]
Shaq Lawson, DE (3 years, $30 million, $20.8 million guaranteed, two-year out-clause) – Lawson turned it up in a contract year and got his reward. Not sure if Miami’s the place I’d wanna cash in, but hey, to each their own.
Kyle Van Noy, LB (4 years, $51 million, $30 million guaranteed) – inclined to think Flores wooed him, because signing here doesn’t make a ton of sense from his standpoint. He’s 28 and should still be effective by the end of the deal, but the Byron Jones qualm applies here as well: the juice might not be worth the squeeze a couple years down the road. [Miami protected themselves on this contract in a much better way than on the Jones deal: the second half of Van Noy’s guarantee doesn’t kick in unless the Dolphins pass on the two-year out-clause in the linebacker’s contract. $15 million in savings is a much bigger bailout, plus the dead cap hit is $6 million in the first year and only $3 million the second year, a much easier number for the Dolphins to navigate around.]
Minnesota Vikings
Michael Pierce, DT (3 years, $27 million, $9 million guaranteed for first year, if MIN keeps Pierce around for the last two years he’s guaranteed another $9 million and has $4 million in signing bonuses due, though a lower dead cap hit could lead to MIN cutting the cord early) – Pierce isn’t quite as good as Linval, but he’s younger. It’s possible he is going to grow into what Linval was, but Pierce has to prove it.
Anthony Harris, S (1 year, $11.44 million via the franchise tag) – The tag was the move here. Harris is clearly an effective guy, but he’s coming off a 6-interception season that would’ve inflated a long-term deal. Now the Vikings can get a better gauge of what sort of long-term value Harris can bring to the table..
New England Patriots
Devin McCourty, S (2 years, $23 million, $17 million guaranteed) – A solid deal for a great player, and it keeps the brothers Mac together for another year. They’re not quite the Sedin twins, but it’s amazing that we have a pair of brothers on the same team playing close to the same position. Give me them over the Lopez twins 8 days a week.
Joe Thuney, G (1 year, $14.7 million via the franchise tag) – I normally concede that our northeastern overlords know what they’re doing. But the tag here’s a bit curious. Maybe they just wanna see what direction the franchise is heading in Post-Brady but since he’s only 27 you’d think that wouldn’t be much of an issue. We’ll see. [List of players who’ve received the franchise tag from Bill Belichik: Matt Cassel {traded}, Wes Welker, Logan Mankins {wasn’t happy about it, sat out}, Vince Wilfork, Tebucky Jones {never heard from again}, Asante Samuel, Stephen Gostowski {signed an extension}, and Adam Vinatieri {worked once, second time paved the way for his departure for Indianapolis. I don’t like it when the Patriots franchise tag people.]
New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees, QB (2 years, $50 million, $25 million guaranteed) – Two years seems about right: It removes the pressure for this year to be a farewell tour for the local legend. He’s not quite what he used to be, but his numbers are still outstanding—nearly 3000 yards, 27 TDs, and 4 picks in two-thirds of a season in 2019. The Saints’ window is still wide open.
Taysom Hill, WR, QB (1 year, $4.6 million via first round tender) – Allow me to explain the 1st rounder tender Taysom received. It means that if another team wanted him, they’d have to fork over a 1st round pick in order to sign…Taysom Hill. You’re guess is as good as mine as to how the hype train became the fucking Polar Express. But here we are. The Saints have their successor—their will-be-32-when-Brees-retires successor.
Malcolm Jenkins, S (4 years, $32 million, $16.5 million guaranteed)– It’s a nice homecoming for a guy who was a rookie for the ‘Ship back in 2010. It’s a bit surprising Philly turned him loose given their secondary woes, though they’re not hurting as much now with the addition of Darius Slay. Jenkins will be a key cog in New Orleans this year.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR (2 years, $19 million, $16 million guaranteed) – The Saints have needed a 2nd receiving option for a while—Ted Ginn Jr. and Willie Snead didn’t quite cut the mustard. With Michael Thomas and Jared Cook, Brees now has 3 formidable options, without even taking into account the threat of Alvin Kamara coming out of the backfield. They’re gonna be a handful.
New York Giants
James Bradberry, CB, (3 years, $43.5 million, $31.9 million guaranteed) – It’s a lot of coin for yet another former Panther on this list, but the G-Men have their Janoris Jenkins replacement. They’ll likely address the o-line with the 4th overall pick in this year’s draft, so it makes sense that they’re attacking defense in free agency.
Blake Martinez, ILB (3 years, $30.75 million, $19 million guaranteed, two-year out-clause) – This is a good signing for a team that should be taking all comers on defense. Martinez is the closest thing the Giants have had to a quarterback for the defense since Antonio Pierce. [Antonio Pierce retired in 2010.]
Leonard Williams, DT/DE (1 year, $17 million via the franchise tag) – The Giants gave a lot of money to a guy who was kind of brutal last year, posting just half a sack. Williams is still just 25, so maybe his best is yet to come. But he’s gotta improve, and even if he does it might not justify the deal. [Reports indicate Williams and the Giants are not currently close to an extension.]
New York Jets
Jordan Jenkins, OLB (1 year, $5 million, guarantee unknown) – Jenkins rounds out a stellar Jets linebacker unit that includes C.J. Moseley and Avery Williamson. The defense has buoyed this team going all the way back to the Sanchize days—they just need Sam Darnold to make that next leap to move up a competitive tier.
Connor McGovern, C (3 years, $27 million, $18 million guaranteed) – The Jets missed out on the big fish they coulda used on the o-line, but McGovern’s still an immense improvement and will be joined by at least two other free agents [George Fent got a similar contract with less guaranteed money than McGovern to serve as one of the Jets’ tackles, and Brandon Shell got a 2 year, $11 million deal with an unknown guarantee to join the tackle corps as well]. McGovern should particularly help pave the way for Lev Bell to rekindle some magic from his Steelers days.
Philadelphia Eagles
Javon Hargrave, DT (3 years, $39 million, $25.5 million guaranteed, two year out clause that wouldn’t save the Eagles any money paid out to Hargarve, but seriously lowers his dead cap number) – A tough piece to lose for my Steelers, but a big payday was in order. Hargrave and Fletcher Cox make for a mammoth interior d-line. They’ll see Zeke Elliott and Saquon Barkley 4 times, so it’s a good spot to fortify.
Darius Slay, CB (3 years, $50 million, $30 million guaranteed) – It’s a hefty price tag, but the d-backs in Philly were so miserable in 2019 that it’s tough to argue against the signing. The Cowboys still outclass the Eagles in the talent department, but this brings Philly one step closer to moving past their divisional rivals.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Bud Dupree, DE, OLB (1 year, $15 million via the franchise tag) – Personally, I would’ve rather had Hargrave, but I don’t hate the decision to tag Dupree. My main concern is that he was a one-hit wonder who benefited from T.J. Watt demolishing dudes. But, with the defense as a whole having been stabilized last year—mainly due to the smelling salt-esque effect of trading for Minkah Fitzpatrick—maybe that’ll bode well for Dupree.
Eric Ebron, TE (2 years, $12 million, guarantee unknown) – This is a solid signing that should save the Steelers from having to use a pick on a tight end at the draft. Look for Ebron to fulfill the LaDarius Green prophecy as a vertical threat for Big Ben, who is currently a very horizontal man. Look for Vance McDonald to get traded so they can bring in a blocking TE complement on the cheap.
San Francisco 49ers
Arik Armstead, DE (5 years, $85 million, $40 million guaranteed) – Armstead is a beast in his own right, but now the pressure will be on to fill the gap left by Buckner up front, especially now that Armstead finds himself in a new tax bracket. Despite that, the Niners defense is looking like it’s going to be dominant once again.
Jimmie Ward, S (3 years, $28.5 million, $16.5 guaranteed, two-year out-clause at $18.8 million) – One of the best secondaries in football retains one of their own. The money isn’t a killer—seems like a solid deal all around.
Seattle Seahawks
Quinton Dunbar, CB(Traded to Seattle by WSH for a fifth round pick) – Even with former president Bruce Allen gone, the Redskins [thunder clap] are still gonna Redskin [thunder clap?]. He’s a free starting corner…for a 5th rounder. The Legion of Boom isn’t walking through that door, but a defense that was highly overrated last season gets some needed assistance.
Greg Olsen, TE (1 year, $7 million, $5.5 million guaranteed) – Olsen actually had a pretty solid 2019. It’s a slightly expensive deal for a guy who might end up being a backup, but Will Dissly is far from a sure thing coming off an Achilles tear. Old Greg’s a solid insurance policy.
Jarran Reed, DT (2 years, $23 million, $14.1 million guaranteed, one-year out-clause) – Awesome deal for Seattle. Though he got the injury big last year, Reed’s only a season removed from double digit sacks, a savage mark to hit for a d-tackle. He’ll be a huge cog for them over the next couple of years.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Shaq Barrett, OLB (1 year, $15.8 million via the franchise tag) – You won’t find a much more logical franchise-tag scenario than this. Barrett just led the league in sacks, with more than the previous 4 years combined. Where my baseball fans at? We need someone to reply “ROIDS” to any Shaq Barrett related tweets. Shaq Barrett is the Houston Astros of the NFL. He must be stopped at all costs.
Tom Brady, QB (2 years, $50 million guaranteed) – My boss already covered this in infinitely more thorough detail[Sorry, you’ll have to scroll again to find it last week’s newsletter, just look for my tear stains on your computer screen and you’ll see where the column on Brady’s departure is]. Arians had enough after last year’s Jameis 30-pick fiasco, and Brady was easily the most reliable option on the market. The weapons also blow his New England receiving core outta the water. If you don’t hear from me again, it’s because Phil Dorsett LLC and Mo Sanu Corp. sued me into financial oblivion.
Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, OLB (2 years, $25 million, $20 million guaranteed) – JPP will never be as good as the fully-fingered rendition, but he’s still a sack machine. He and Barrett will try to maintain a defense that actually finished 7th in opponent yards per play—it was Jameis’ blunders that consistently thrust the Bucs behind the eight ball, not the defense.
Tennessee Titans
Vic Beasley, OLB (1 year, $12 million, $9.5 million guaranteed) – The Titans already have a pretty effective defense, but they’ve been lacking a force off the edge for a while now. It’s possible that Vic’s 2016 campaign was a flash in the pan, but he’s young enough (he turns 28 in July) where it’s not out of the question that he could replicate it. Perhaps the change of scenery will do the trick.
Derrick Henry, RB (1 year, $10.2 million via the franchise tag) – Even though the play-action-heavy offense revolves around Henry, I think the tag still makes sense given failures of long-term RB deals. I don’t think he’s DeMarco Murray 2.0, but his former teammate should serve as a cautionary tale for what can happen when you run a guy into the ground. It’s hard to imagine Henry’s sequel being as good, but even if he’s 80 percent of what he was last year he’s gonna be a nightmare for defenses across the league.
Dennis Kelly, OT (3 years, $17.25 million, $8.75 million guaranteed, two-year out-clause) – A discount Jack Conklin replacement, and support for Henry on the ground. If Kelly can be even half as good as Conklin he’s a huge bargain.
Ryan Tannehill, QB (4 years, $118 million [!!], $91 million guaranteed [!!!!], three-year out-clause) – Massive risk on this deal, but it’s really not insanely out there relative to our current QB market. Tannehill doesn’t need to be as good as last year (sans playoffs) to make it worthwhile, but he reverting to Miami Tannehill would put the Titans’ chances at any sort of contention six-feet underground.
Washington R—[Thunder claps, Dan Snyder runs away]
Thomas Davis, LB (1 year, $3.5 million, $1.75 million guaranteed) – Riverboat Ron brings one of his old swashbucklers into the fold. Like Moses, Davis won’t be around long enough to see the promised land—he’s 37. But Davis will be a solid mentor, signed on the cheap, who can still play a little bit.
Brandon Scherff, G (1 year, $14.78 million via the franchise tag) – With Trent Williams about to fly the coop, Scherff is Dwayne Haskins’ last hope on the line. Long-term extension talks between Washington and Scherff broke down last week, leading to the tag placement. Haskins’ and Scherff’s fates are likely tied together—should Haskins falter, they’ll probably ship Scherff off too and embrace the rebuild in full.
Tom Shea, known to his friends as Thomas!, is, admittedly, a bit of a charlatan. He is brilliantly able to conceal his spoiled Steelers and Penguins fandom under the guise that his Pirates anguish makes him relatable to the masses. You can find him on Twitter @TomShea5ft11. No description can prepare you for that experience.
Jack Goldman is the publisher of this here newsletter and an independent reporter who in his spare time goes to Boston College. This week, he was mostly the editor of this newsletter. You shouldn’t follow him on Twitter @the_manofgold and you definitely shouldn’t hit that button down there and subscribe to A View Off a Ledge.