Phases For Mass. Reopening Defined, and Colleges Continue Prep For Fall Semester
Plus: Martin Jarmond leaves BC for UCLA, NFC West record predictions, and an Ottawa Senators Offseason Preview
Massachusetts reopened and Boston College’s athletic director bailed for California on the most important day of all-time—the day of my birth. Coincidence? I THINK NOT.
Lot’s going on this week: We’ll do bullet point coverage on the state reopening, then a quick hitter on Martin Jarmond leaving BC and some of the coverage surrounding his departure.
Then I’ll cede the floor to Stanziale for more NFL records predictions and Tom Shea for another NHL offseason preview.
Thanks to everyone who read the bonus newsletter last week—it’s the most read one since I started this by a long way. Always nice to see how passionate people are about IRS documents. I know all of you only read it because you wanted to read about what people send the IRS. Who doesn’t love the IRS?
Thanks to Politico’s Stephanie Murray for her typical excellent work on her Massachusetts Playbook newsletter, where many of the stories and links below were found, along with a hundred other interesting ones that couldn’t fit.
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Let’s get started:
Mass. Phase One Reopening Includes Construction, Manufacturing, and Salon Businesses, Retail Allowed More Curbside Business
Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker announced on Monday that the first businesses that are allowed to open their doors again fall within the categories of construction, manufacturing, or houses of worship. Such institutions began reopening this week, while hair salons, office buildings, and “life-science facilities” are allowed to open on May 25, this Monday, according to The Boston Globe.
“High-priority” preventative or pediatric medical care is also allowed during phase one, according to Baker.
Beaches can open on Memorial day, but activities will be restricted—Baker is requiring 12 feet minimum social distancing between groups, according to the Globe.
The Dorchester Reporter highlighted that in a webinar held by Boston City Hall officials, the major highlight was that just because reopening efforts had begun, officials were encouraging patience—if business owners that can open feel like they shouldn’t or aren’t ready, they aren’t being compelled to reopen immediately.
Phase two is set to be implemented three weeks from now—that would be sometime between June 8 and June 14—if no issues stem from initial reopening efforts and cases, infection rates, hospitalization rates, and death rates remain low. Restaurants, hotels, and more routine medical practices—including dental care—would be able to resume at least a partial reopening or slightly restricted versions of business at that point, according to the Globe. Social distancing measures will still be in place, which could lead to restrictions like capacity limits remaining in place where necessary. Baker mentioned that outdoor day camps could be reopened in phase two as well—partially due to ongoing demand for child care in the wake of most indoor day care centers being closed, and most will remain closed for the foreseeable future.
Phase two is also when pools and playgrounds could be reopened to the public, and the MBTA is planning on ramping up service at this point in the process. That includes a full Blue Line schedule and restored bus routes, according to the Globe.
No timeline for when phases three and four, which will most closely resemble what life was like before the virus, would begin, since those efforts aren’t likely to begin within the next 45 days given the phase one and two timelines. Since much could change, state officials instead just mentioned that full MBTA service, reopened gyms and bars, and reopened museums and casinos would be included in phase three, while phase four would be when social distancing restrictions could be fully lifted, which could be multiple months away.
On the college front, university research labs are reopening now, but the plans for the fall semester aren’t clear at the moment. Baker said he expected that issue to be resolved in the next month or so, according to the Globe [more on this in the next article on here].
Baker also issued a “safer at home” advisory this week that he clarified was “not an order” recommending employees 65 and older should remain in quarantine—the same demographic is most seriously endangered by being exposed to the novel coronavirus, but the reaction to the order from seniors has been mixed, according to the Globe.
Reactions to the plan are also mixed among small business owners and advocacy groups according to WBUR. Concerns ranged from how restrictive the reopening remained, while others continued to argue, as they have in the past, that the plan still lacked vital details that could help guide business owners through the reopening process—those details include how long health indicators need to point to an improving infection situation, which would give business owners a better idea of exactly when new reopening phases would be triggered, allowing for better preparation. Local leaders largely felt the same way, according to WBUR, and Rep. Ayanna Pressly spoke out against the reopening plans on Twitter, joining local state Democrat representatives who are concerned the reopening is occurring too soon and will spark a second wave of infections.
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Some other notes from Murray’s newsletters this week:
You’re not going to believe this, but Massachusetts drivers have leapt at the opportunity posed by more open roads. This comes from The Boston Herald, and before I throw the link on here, I must caution that the Herald site is not my favorite since every time I click on it I feel like I’m picking up a computer virus, but if you’re not as afraid as I am, here it is. From Playbook: “COVID Speedway: Massachusetts State Police report extreme driving during coronavirus pandemic,” by Lisa Kashinsky, Boston Herald: “Motorists are taking social distancing to the extreme on roads left wide open by coronavirus closures, turning highways into danger zones by clocking speeds in excess of 100 mph, tickets show. Massachusetts police issued 15,071 speeding citations in March and April — including 259 drivers nabbed at speeds of 100 mph or more, according to data obtained through a Herald public records request.”
Boston Federal Reserve Chief Eric Rosengren said that reopening businesses won’t immediately fix the unemployment crisis brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, before going on to say that unemployment will remain in double-digits through the end of the calendar year, according to the Globe.
A Boston City Council meeting was held this week (via videoconference) regarding the high cost of delivery fees. The only delivery service that answered the call to testify about why the city shouldn’t place a cap on fees was Grubhub—Amy Healy, the delivery service’s senior director of public affairs, testified that limited fees would “lower order volume to local restaurants and increase costs for operators,” according to Boston.com. She described implementing a cap as an “overstep.” But city councilors argued small businesses aren’t getting their fair share of the profits thanks to delivery fees that can jump to 30 percent of delivery orders from an establishment in some cases (typical charges range from 10-30 percent). Councilor Ed Flynn said “Boston desperately needs a cap,” while Councilor Michael Flaherty said he thought the best outcome was “a solution between industry leaders and stakeholders,” before wondering aloud about whether the City Council can claim such fees as within their jurisdiction. Flaherty pointed out that in normal circumstances, he didn’t think the council would be considering whether a cap was necessary, but city residents have major concerns about price gouging and local business owners are crying foul. Both councilors expressed their disappointment that only Grubhub had attended the hearing, with Flynn noting “The other ones hid behind the computer and didn’t want to engage in this topic. … It probably shows you the disrespect the other companies have for the residents of Boston, in my opinion.” One local restaurateur said 72 percent of his sales since dine-in service was suspended were delivery orders—that’s led to him paying delivery companies around $86,000. He said he’d rather have less orders, as Healy said he would, rather than having to lose so much of his profits to delivery services, calling the pricing structure “no longer viable for restaurants.” San Francisco and New York City have implemented caps, Baltimore is considering the measure, and Cambridge recently capped fees at 10 percent, even lower than San Francisco and NYC did (they opted for a 15 percent cap).
The Kraft Analytics group is looking into whether fans will be willing to go to stadiums when they’re reopened in Massachusetts, according to WBUR.
Hospitals would be able to reallocate resources to fighting a surge in coronavirus cases within hours, according to MassLive.com.
BC Still Planning For On-Campus Fall Reopening, Despite Recent Warning by Fauci, as BU Announces Major Revenue Shortfall
Boston College President Rev. William P. Leahy, S.J., said that the university is still planning on reopening with students on campus for the fall semester, on the same day that Boston University President Bob Brown announced the university faces a shortfall between $70-150 million due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The issue has forced BU to suspend contributions to employee retirement accounts for the next year, according to the Globe.
Last week, Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious disease, said in congressional testimony that schools—K-12 and colleges—should be preparing themselves for remote learning in the fall, since the precautionary measures required to return to campuses won’t be available in time for fall semesters.
Northeastern announced last week they are planning for students to return to campus in the fall under new restrictions that are intended to keep students and faculty safe. Leahy mentioned in his email that BC learned from having students on campus after the university closed in March how to keep students, faculty and staff safe. University officials noted on multiple occasions that 400 students were on campus in the wake of BC closing, but by March 30 only 320 students remained on campus, the total dipped below 300 by April 13, and dwindled to 259 students by May 6 before the student population went home at the close of the spring semester one week later. Students who remained on campus were confined to Upper Campus, just one of the three areas where residential halls are located—one of which is located on Newton Campus, which requires shuttle buses to bring students to Main Campus for classes. Only one dining hall remained open for takeout-only business once Governor Baker handed down his stay-at-home order in March—far more will be needed if the campus is to reopen.
BC’s full student population fluctuates around the 14,500 mark depending on a number of factors during a normal semester. It’s clear that a number of factors will need to be controlled in a serious way to bring students back to campus in-full beyond measures used to keep BC community members safe. Additionally, through most of the last two months at least one student had to be in isolation despite the smaller student population, and two students tested positive for COVID-19 early on in the process.
BC Professor Marilynn Johnson told the Globe faculty members have been informed that they should prepare for both an in-person and remote learning semester. I think it’s safe to assume that edict was handed down because an in-person is by no means guaranteed, and Johnson told the Globe that it’s possible “the semester would begin in person but end online, if cases of the virus spike again.”
One option that could be considered was mentioned by Globe—“Notre Dame announced this week that it will open its campus this fall but start two weeks early so that students will not need to return after Thanksgiving.” BC’s summer session ends slightly later than usual this year (August 14), so presumably the semester couldn’t begin before that point.
UMass Amherst informed students this week they should expect both in-person and online learning this fall, and UMass’ president is proposing a tuition freeze, according to the Globe and WBUR.
One more note from college world: BC Athletic Director Martin Jarmond left the university to take the same position at the University of California: Los Angeles this week—Pete Thamel reported the news late last week and said no announcement would be expected until Monday, and it wasn’t until Tuesday that Jarmond publicly confirmed he’d be departing Chestnut Hill after three years on the job. JM Caparro, senior associate athletics director for external affairs at BC, will serve as the interim AD. Thamel mentioned that Jarmond’s fundraising abilities were one of the things that stood out the most to UCLA during their search for an AD—Jarmond launched BC’s first athletics capital campaign, Greater Heights, in October 2018—the fundraising goal was set at $150 million. By the time the effort hit its one year anniversary, Jarmond and his office told me that they’d hit the $100 million mark. Fundraising understandably slowed down from there (only a few months after I was told that, BC was closed due to the COVID-19 pandemic)—BC reported in a release upon Jarmond’s announcement that he’d be headed for California that the university has raised over $110 million as a part of the campaign so far. Even though there’s a big old copy error in the featured image, I wrote an article in another life comparing how much fundraising BC had done from 2008 until the Greater Heights announcement in 2018—the effort basically was projected to be only $50 million short of what BC’s new sports facilities (the fieldhouse next to the football stadium and new fields on Brighton Campus), and Jarmond told me that once the fundraising goal was hit, the program’s plan was to keep going rather than conclude the campaign, which likely would’ve meant new a new fundraising goal that potentially would’ve surpassed two of the largest athletics-related capital projects in the school’s history. That sort of fundraising power at what compared to UCLA is a relatively small sports program must have had major appeal to UCLA administrators—Thamel reported UCLA is $19 million in the hole at the moment. It doesn’t take much to figure out UCLA’s first directive to Jarmond will be to rebalance its accounts and begin fundraising plans similar to BC’s in order to restore the Bruins’ standing in the eyes of student athletes, donors, alumni, and more.
Stanziale: NFC West Record Predictions
By Nicholas Stanziale
There is no news to report on the NFL season as of now, but Aaron Rodgers spoke to reporters, via phone call, and said he believes the NFL will make a decision in mid-June on if teams will open up facilities full-time. Some teams are already opening up their facilities partially, which is a great sign. Since the season is currently on track to play, we’re going to continue with record predictions. Last week, we covered the NFC South and if you’ll recall, I called that division the most “compelling” one in the conference, potentially the league. Compelling is not the same as the best—this week, I’ll be covering what I think is the best division in football.
The NFC West features a plethora of talent and good teams. Not only do they have the defending conference champions in the San Francisco 49ers, they also have Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks, a team that is only 2 years removed from a Super Bowl appearance in the Los Angeles Rams, and the West also has one of the biggest winners of the offseason in the Arizona Cardinals. The 49ers aren’t much worse than they were last year, when they were the number 1 overall seed in the NFC and logged a 13-3 record—in fact, some may say General Manager John Lynch improved the team this past offseason. The Seahawks were an inch away from winning the division title in 2019, and when they have number 3 under center, they can win any football game. The Rams finished third in the West last season and just missed the final wild card spot thanks to two late season losses to the Niners and Dallas Cowboys. The Cardinals, a year removed from selecting Kyler Murray first-overall, look stronger than anyone could have imagined they would at this point after their horrid 2018 season. With all that being said, let’s look at how the best division in football will fare in the upcoming 2020 season.
San Francisco 49ers: 11-5
The 49ers are defending division champs by an inch and defending conference champs by 17 points. They made five selections in the draft and they basically nailed every single one, including the addition of another stud up front in Javon Kinlaw and snagging a good receiver at the back-end of round 1 in Brandon Aiyuk. Kyle Shanahan and his game plan won’t change a bit, and why should it?
Breakdown:
This record may come as a shock to most, but the 49ers actually have a tough schedule. Even though they won’t acquire the number 1 overall playoff seed with this record, I still think they have a great shot to repeat as conference champions, and even win the Lombardi Trophy, this season. The Niners will have a great start to the season, but enter the playoffs as one of the coldest teams in the NFL. I have them starting out 7-0, and then they’ll enter Seattle for Week 8’s signature contest. That matchup starts a brutal stretch for the 49ers, and one that they’ll want to forget. I have them going 4-5 from Week 8 on—including a loss in Seattle. Any team can lose to a high powered offense, and though San Francisco had a nice offseason, the front office didn’t address one of my main concerns with the 49ers: the secondary. Their most notable games come late in the season: the Green Bay Packers come to town for the third time in two years in Week 9, San Francisco travels to the Superdome to face New Orleans in Week 10, and Week 17 at home against Seattle is a matchup that could that could decide the division champion—again. All in all, this is looking like a solid, if not perfect, year for the 49ers that has them easily in the playoffs and, depending on tiebreakers, as division champs once more.
Surprise Game:
There are two surprise games for San Francisco: The first comes in Week 13 when Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills come to Santa Clara. The Bills defense will smother the 49ers ground game, forcing Jimmy Garrapolo to throw the football, which will result in a loss for the Niners. The second surprise game will be a late season clash with the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15. This is a game where the aforementioned weak secondary gets exposed by the high-flying Cowboys offense. Ezekiel Elliot, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup will all have an enormous day. It’ll be a high-scoring affair, and that’ll spell doom for San Francisco.
Seattle Seahawks: 11-5
We’re still waiting on details regarding former number 1 overall pick and stud pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney’s future. The Seahawks snagged him in a trade with Houston last off-season, and the move changed their defense entirely, but more importantly it transformed their pass rush. Russell Wilson has the same impact for the Hawks on the offensive side of the ball—without Wilson, Seattle’s record is completely different. He’s a flat-out winner—I’m not a fan of the Hawks’ roster, but I’m a fan of Wilson, and his pure talent will take Seattle far.
Breakdown:
Just like their division foe—the 49ers—the Seahawks are coming out of the gates smoking hot in 2020 and will finish with the same overall record as their rivals. The Seahawks will win their first five games before their Week 6 bye rolls around. Those games aren’t the easiest of matchups, but Seattle plays three of them on home turf, and those three come against its hardest opponents. The early bye week may hurt Seattle, leading to a tired crew going into the stretch run when they have to travel to places like Los Angeles and Buffalo. The first of the Hawks’ noteworthy matchups comes in Week 5 when the Vikings come to town. These two conference titans are slated for a great contest where home-field makes the ultimate difference, and in Week 8 the 49ers come to town for what will be another phenomenal football game that Seattle comes out of on top. In Week 12, Wilson and company travel to the city of brotherly love and to play a rematch of last year’s NFC Wildcard round that they won’t be able to squeeze a win out of on the road. To cap the season off, the Hawks travel to Santa Clara for the previously mentioned division-deciding matchup.
Surprise Game(s):
Seattle’s surprise game comes in Week 7. Despite being well-rested coming off their bye week, the Hawks will still come out flat against the new look Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals beat the Seahawks last season, with Brett Hundley under center no less, and severely hurt their chances at home field advantage or a bye in the 2019 postseason. With the Cardinals looking a lot better than last year's squad, they’ll take down their West Coast enemy.
Los Angeles Rams: 9-7
I have the Rams going 9-7 for the second-straight year. The good news is it’s possible that this season they can just sneak into the wild card spot, unlike last year when they just missed out. Los Angeles has made a few big changes to their roster, including cutting a former top-10 pick in Todd Gurley. Head Coach Sean McVay needs a few tricks up his sleeve if he wants to be playing in another Super Bowl anytime soon.
Breakdown:
When a team finishes with a record of 9-7 or 8-8, it’s tough to have winning or losing streaks—typically those sorts of seasons are defined by lots of inconsistencies, and that’s exactly the sort of year the Rams are looking at. Their longest “streak” of any sort is a two game win streak, and that’s followed by a two game losing streak. They’re never really going to get hot, but they’ll never really get cold either. Los Angeles is one of my favorites for a wild card spot, and a record like 9-7 will most likely get them there. Although L.A. doesn’t have the best fan base and home field advantage is close to non-existent for them, I still have them going 8-0 at home. To me, they have an easy home schedule, absent Seattle and San Francisco, and the new stadium could help the fan atmosphere. Ultimately, McVay and his squad usually play well within the division and that’s why I have the Rams winning those games, probably in close contests. If this schedule is 100 percent correct, which it [Editor’s note: Definitely will be 100 percent, and that’s definitely what Nicky wrote here I did not change it. In an unrelated story, Nicky is for sure a narcissist.], the Rams will enter the playoffs winning three of their last four games. Sometimes you don’t have to be the best to make a deep run into the playoffs, you just have to get hot at the right time—ask Eli Manning and the Giants.
Surprise Game(s):
The Rams have two surprise games and they were already mentioned in the breakdown: When the Seahawks and 49ers come to town, I think the Rams will somehow win both. Maybe it’s what I saw last season, maybe I have trust in McVay and his game plan, but something really tells me that the Rams will not go away quietly, and those two key wins are what puts them in the playoffs, proving to the NFC and to the whole league that L.A. is ready to compete.
Arizona Cardinals: 7-9
The Cardinals have probably had the best offseason out of any team in the NFL. They drafted studs in linebacker Isaiah Simmons and offensive tackle Joshua Jones, and they traded almost nothing for one of the two best receivers on the planet, DeAndre Hopkins. The Cardinals need a year together to hit their stride, and then they’ll be ready to rock in 2021. Still, 7-9 isn’t a bad turnaround for a team who held the number one overall selection two years ago.
Breakdown:
When Week 14 rolls around, the Cardinals are going to be in prime position to surprise everyone and sneak into the playoffs. The one problem is that their final four games are very tough matchups. The 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles are coming to town, and Arizona’s road matchups are not going to go in the Cards’ favor either. They are traveling to New Jersey in what will be a cold-weather battle with the New York Football Giants, and the final game of the season will feature the Cardinals traveling to their divisional rivals in Los Angeles. I have the Cardinals losing all four of these games, resulting in their final record of 7-9. Two crucial matchups for Arizona come in Week 5 and Week 14. In both games, they’ll be playing winnable games in MetLife Stadium, neither of which will be decided in the Cards’ favor. If they could get two wins instead, that puts them at 9-7 instead of 7-9 and maybe secures them a playoff spot. It’s a potentially huge swing in Arizona’s fortunes, but I have the Cardinals coming up short in both games simply because they will come into these games overconfident resulting in them playing too flat. This shouldn’t upset Cardinal fans or the organization, though. 2020 is going to be a huge step in the right direction for them. Arizona won’t have the best draft pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, but they’ll have another, much improved year in Kliff Kingsbury’s system under their belts, and more time to gel as a team. Depending on the 49ers and Seahawks salary cap situations, the Cardinals could potentially be a favorite in the west in two or three years. That could be a stretch, but I am really buying into what is being built in Arizona.
Surprise Game(s):
The surprise game for the Arizona Cardinals comes in Week 10 when the Buffalo Bills come to town. I have the Bills going 3-1 against NFC West teams this upcoming season, and their lone loss will come at the hands (talons?) of the Cardinals. Everyone else will probably have that entire scenario reversed, but I think things play out this way instead. The Cardinals will shock the table-breaking fan base and will win their game vs Buffalo this season.
Nicholas Stanziale is a student at Marist College and a prospective broadcaster and journalist. He lives and dies by sports, especially by how the Green Bay Packers, New York Yankees, New Jersey Devils, and Villanova Basketball are doing.
NHL Offseason Preview: At Least The Ottawa Senators Have All Those Draft Picks...
By Tom Shea
Shy of an expansion team, the Sens might be the closest organization we’ll see to a true sandbox mode of just running s—t from scratch and seeing what happens. They’ve yet to deploy over half their cap space. Only 9 guys are signed for next year and just 4 through the year after. Craig Anderson has finally been freed from his decade of indentured servitude. A bottom 3 team for a 3rd straight year, the Sens are gunning for a rebuild in its full, naked, efficacy-of-tanking-begetting essence. It’s a stark 180 from just 2.5 years ago, when they acquired Matt Duchene following a year when they were a Game 7 shy of winning the East. The debate is ambivalent on whether an NHL team can forge success through ping pong balls—my Pens made it work by nabbing a generational talent, but the early 2010’s Oilers flopped, as have the Sabres this past half decade. Regardless, the Sens are all in on being all out. The only bright spot is that the Sens are looking at 13 draft picks this year, seven of which are in the first two rounds—if they play their cards right, much of the rebuild’s core will be taken care of this summer.
[Goldman’s note: We’re still assuming an $81.5 million cap until someone tells us differently. Thanks to Evolving Hockey for their contract projections—they’re worth the patronage! Click here to see all our previews so far.]
Senators
Current total allocation: $37M ($3.7M/player)
Total spots to fill: 13 ($44.5M remaining)
Most certain: Defense
Current allocation: $16.3M ($4.1M/player)
Spots to fill: 3
All 3 categories are relatively close together, but defense wins solely due to Thomas Chabot being locked up for the next 8 years. If the Sens ever have a blue liner as good as Erik Karlsson again, there’s a good chance they’ve already found that player in Chabot. He’s just 23 years old and already one of the best offensive defensemen in the league, and he excels at driving play, ranking 11th among all defensemen in expected goal plus minus relative to teammates (RelT xG+-) per Evolving Hockey, all over the life of an entry-level deal. He’s the lone true star on a team desperate for talent.
But there’s still a lotta work to do: The only other incumbent is Nikita Zaitsev, who Ottawa is inexplicably tied to through 2024. Top prospect Erik Brannstrom is just 20 and will improve on a meager rookie year. Christian Wolanin has been effective in spurts but needs to show he can play more consistently with the big club. Impending UFA Mike Reilly will likely be moved before the deadline. Andreas Englund will likely resign as an RFA, but he’s just a stopgap until someone better comes along.
Enter the tank. They’ll almost assuredly pick Quinton Byfield with the number two pick, and the Sens could go with top d-man prospect Jamie Drysdale at number three. The righty could play with Chabot or Brannstrom, or they could roll 3 competent pairs—the higher level of competition wouldn’t be an issue since they’re not competing anyway. Even though Drysdale’s not the best value per se at number three, the Sens are fairly lean on blueliners in the pipeline beyond Brannstrom, so it makes sense for them to go with Drysdale whenever the draft gets held.
This would leave the Sens with 75 percent of a future top 4. Maybe Wolanin grows into that 4th spot or they find a hidden gem on the market. Either way they’re playing the long game, so they’re not overly reliant on any one option playing out. That’s one great thing about the tank: With the pertinent depth chart not really a factor, it gives teams virtually full flexibility as far as how they want to construct their rosters. The Sens can play around and get an earnest gauge for what might work moving forward.
Medium certainty: Forward
Current allocation: $17.4M ($4.7M/player)
Spots to fill: 9(!)
The 9-spots-to-fill party is misleading: Six forwards are restricted free agents and none are projected to make more than $4.3M, not that that’d be an issue thanks to the Sens’ ocean of cap space. Brady Tkachuk will be in for a nice extension after next season, but that’s the only other major cap expense they’ll have in the near future.
Bobby Ryan leads the remaining group in salary. Though he never rekindled his Anaheim days where he had 4 straight 30 goal seasons, he still scores at around a second line rate. His contract isn’t great, especially when you consider that he doesn’t really contribute in terms of possession or defense, but I don’t think it’s the albatross it’s made out to be either—remember, the Sens contemplated stapling Ryan’s contract to Karlsson’s on his way out just to get him off the books. With just 2 years left on his deal and plenty of available cash on the Sens’ books it’s likely he stays in Ottawa until the contract expires. Unfortunately for Ryan, the Sens likely won’t get good again until he’s out the door.
That being said, the stalwart of the group is Tkachuk. Since coming into the league he’s scored at a top line rate, and he also ranks seventh among all forwards in RelT xG+-. He’s every bit as good as his brother Matthew at even-strength and Brady doesn’t turn 21 years-old until September. He and Ryan flank Colin White on that top line. It’s possible Byfield could replace White as the top line center, but White’s production is fine in a second line role.
Meanwhile, we should see most if not all of the RFA crop come back. Chris Tierney, Connor Brown and Anthony Duclair could all return for reasonable prices. Duclair in particular should be a priority: he already topped his career high in goals before the season got cut off, and DailyFaceoff.com currently has him on the third line. In a full year with Byfield or even White he could do some damage. As for Brown, he’s a solid two-way wing who’d incidentally complement the offensive-minded Duclair well on the second line.
Most of the remaining spots will be filled from within: Jayce Hawryluk and Rudolfs Balcers, should both return at around six-figure price tags. Also, this is likely the year we see Drake Batherson with the big club full time, as his ELC expires after next season. I’ll toss in Carl Soderberg for cap floor purposes, get Eugene Melnyk’s blood pressure going.
Least Certain: Goaltender
Current allocation: $3.3M ($1.7M/player)
Spots to fill: 1
With Anderson free to go, his replacement remains up in the air. Anders Nilsson is signed for 1 more year but frankly isn’t that good. Marcus Hogberg hasn’t been good either, and Filip Gustavsson has struggled in the AHL. This could be the spot where they finally put that cap space to use. Thomas Greiss isn’t a true number one goalie but he’s one of the better ones available who will actually hit free agency. He can provide around 40 games of solid play, which isn’t enough but it’s better than what Anderson was giving them.
In this scenario the Sens would dump Nilsson (see below) to offset some of Greiss’s salary. Another goalie would also be acquired to fight for the backup job, most likely a young one. Let’s say Garrett Sparks, just to get a rise out of Leafs fans. Greiss and a platoon of whoever the hot hand is isn’t a great tandem, but this setup will be good enough to keep the Sens in it most nights.
Compliance Buyout Prediction: None
Though the entire crux of this section is supposed to be that the buyouts are compliance ones, Elliotte Friedman said a couple weeks ago that owners won’t want money circulating outside the cap system next year regardless of how the economic effects of the pandemic play out—meaning no compliance buyouts. If there were compliance ones, there’s no reason not to buy Nilsson out that way, but for the sake of reality (if undermining the point of this section), we’ll say he gets bought out the old fashioned way. That’ll save Melnyk $800,000 ultimately, paying for the entirety of Sparks’ contract, as well as alleviating the theoretical stress of Nilsson’s slightly high hit—in reality the Sens couldn’t stress their cap unless they were trying to sign Connor McDavid and a clone of Connor McDavid.
CapFriendly Prediction: $61,243,166 … https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1739925
Big picture:
Whether this rebuild is an earnest assessment that the 2017 playoff run was a fluke, or that it’s simply Emperor Melnyk scrounging together a couple shekels by not spending to the cap, is open to interpretation. But, the pieces are there for the Sens to maybe only be, like, a bottom 10 team. The Atlantic is such a mess beyond the top 3 that they could feasibly be in the playoff hunt most of the way through. Of course, that assumes short learning curves for both Byfield and Drysdale, but there’s enough top end talent that they’ll at least be interesting.
Tom Shea, known to his friends as Thomas!, is, admittedly, a bit of a charlatan. He is brilliantly able to conceal his spoiled Steelers and Penguins fandom under the guise that his Pirates anguish makes him relatable to the masses. You can find him on Twitter @TomShea5ft11. No description can prepare you for that experience.
Jack Goldman is the publisher and editor of this newsletter, as well as an independent reporter who has previously worked for The Heights and The Dorchester Reporter. In his spare time, he’s a student at Boston College.