NFC East Previews and The Tampa Bay Lightning at a Crossroads
Stanziale predicts who ends up on top in one of the NFL’s signature divisions, while Shea explains why the Lightning are yet to come out on top in the Stanley Cup playoffs this decade.
Goldman: Nothing from me this edition, just Tom and Nicky. If you’re looking for more A View Off a Ledge, check out what I wrote yesterday about Black Lives Matter or our last full edition from two weeks ago—I covered what obstacles colleges in Massachusetts are expected to deal with if they’re going to return to in-person instruction this fall based on the governor’s advisory board’s recommendations, Nicky gave his predictions for predictions for the NFC North, and Tom started what is turning into his “chokers” series with an examination of the last decade of Oklahoma City Thunder basketball.
We’ll be back tomorrow with another edition—I can almost guarantee three days in a row will never happen again, this is a particularly strange time. If there’s news I think should go in, I’ll toss it in but most of tomorrow will be sports as well—probably NFL and NHL again, plus I’m going to try to fit some NASCAR in—it’s staring down the barrel of actually creating some systemic change for one of the first times in the organization’s history.
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NFC East Predictions: At Least There’s Some Upside!
By Nicholas Stanziale
Folks, it is somehow already June and things are seemingly getting worse across the world with every day that passes. It is tough to write about sports as injustice and protests continue to sweep through America, but I am going to try anyway. My writing helps me take my mind off things, and hopefully it helps all of you take your mind off things for just a little while. Before we start today, if you are rightfully taking part in protests, no matter where you live, stay safe and remember why the protests are happening. To all those who are affected by the tragic and unfair loss of George Floyd, my prayers go out to you. Please remember, we are all equal and we all deserve the same rights—rights that are being denied to Black people across the globe. These are trying times in our country, try to stay strong and stay well.
With all of that being said, let’s see how the sports world has since changed since I last checked in with all of you a couple of weeks ago: Alongside the NHL, the NBA has declared a return to action. Although not yet official, July 31 is the tentative restart date of the 2019-2020 regular season. The NBA’s Board of Governors held a vote where they officially ratified the plan set forth by commissioner, Adam Silver. The season will restart in Orlando, Florida at Disney resorts.
As expected, another week has passed and there have been no modifications or changes made to the NFL schedule, so we are going to move forward with our schedule predictions. The division we cover today will close out the NFC conference, and we will be able to see how the playoff picture looks. Usually the saying goes, “save the best for last,” but I decided to do the opposite, because why not. Today, I saved the worst for last.
Up to this point, I have covered the most “compelling” division, the “toughest” division, and the “second toughest” division in football. So, what does that make the NFC East? Here’s a shot in the dark: Today, I’m breaking down the most promising division in football. It’s no secret that NFC East has been a terrible division these past two seasons, and that comes as a shock. The Eagles are only two years removed from a Super Bowl title, Dallas looked like the team of the future when Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot burst onto the scene in the 2016 season, the Giants had a promising offensive core until they traded Odell Beckham Jr., and the Redskins finally found their quarterback until he gruesomely broke his leg, placing a cloud of uncertainty regarding whether Alex Smith will even return to football, never mind whether he can resume his career and play at the level he was capable of when Washington signed him originally. Another down year seems to be the inevitable outcome every team in the East is facing, but in two years, this group may be the best division in football.
The Eagles roster remains mainly the same as seasons past, except they’ve addressed their needs at wide receiver and brought in a premier cornerback in Darius “Big Play” Slay. The Cowboys were one of my winners of the draft back in April and they were able to lock up Amari Cooper, Elliot, and I think Prescott is soon to follow. The Giants may have made the most shocking pick in the top 5 (offensive tackle Andrew Thomas), but I still think they got it right and had an incredible draft—their second round selection, Xavier McKinney is a particular standout. They are mainly a young roster with upside and the potential to be a threat in the 2021 season. Finally, the Redskins drafted—arguably—the best prospect in Chase Young, hired the best head coach on the market, Riverboat Ron Rivera, and have a fun young defense. They will be one of the worst teams in the NFL next season, but are primed to develop and turn into one of the better teams in the future. 2020 is certainly not looking like it’s going to be an exciting year for the NFC East, but an exciting future is almost assured given its teams’ respective upside. With that being said, let’s see how these four teams fare in this edition of predictions.
Philadelphia Eagles: 8-8
The biggest question surrounding the Eagles is whether Carson Wentz will stay healthy. They have insurance with Jalen Hurts sitting behind Wentz, but that isn’t enough—if Wentz gets hurt the trajectory of Philadelphia’s season will be irreparably altered. The Eagles did add some speedy weapons for Wentz such as Jalen Reagor, Marquise Goodwin, and could get a chance at a full season of DeSean Jackson, who returned to the city of brotherly love last year in a trade. I’m not entirely sure what it is, but I feel the Eagles are missing something to make them great.
Breakdown:
I mentioned this before, but the Eagles season solely rests on whether or not Carson Wentz can suit up or not. Wentz is a tremendous quarterback, but one who seemingly cannot stay on the field. The Eagles underwhelm me on the defensive side of the ball, especially in the secondary, although I do love the acquisition of Slay. The secondary has always been a weak spot in Philadelphia and that rings true as we inch closer to kickoff for the 2020 season. After this offseason, it seems that head coach Doug Pederson has lots of toys to play with on offense, including the speed of the revamped receiving corps, the potential of a dual quarterback set with rookie Jalen Hurts, the emergence of running back Boston Scott to compliment Miles Sanders, and the comeback of big names and bodies like Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, and Dallas Goedert. The Eagles are going to come out soaring—pun intended—by winning their first three games of the season, but then they’ll find themselves sitting at .500 following a three game losing streak that carries them into their Week 7 matchup with division opponent: the New York Giants. After back-to-back division wins, Philadelphia will reach their bye week maintaining a decent 5-3 record, but I have the Eagles proceeding to lose five of the remaining eight games on their schedule. Their biggest matchups come in Week 5 when they travel to Pittsburgh in the battle of Pennsylvania—it’s a winnable game, and one that can help them secure the division crown again, but I have an “L” in that column. Week 16 showcases another crucial matchup when Philly travels to Dallas. Philadelphia may sport the nickname “the city of brotherly love,” but there isn’t much love lost between the Eagles and Cowboys. This game could determine the champion of the East, and I have the Cowboys winning simply because Prescott will throw for around 500 yards. An 8-8 record likely ousts the Eagles from playoff contention—2020 isn’t going to be the season Philadelphia or Eagles fans are hoping for.
Surprise Game:
Philly’s surprise game is a victory for them in Week 12. It’ll be a battle of the birds when the Seahawks come into the Eagle’s home territory. It’s a rematch of wild card weekend this past season, when the Seahawks got the best of Pederson and his squad in a game that came down to the final minutes. Seattle barely beat Josh McCown (who also got hurt), and the Eagles will want revenge for not being able to advance. It’s a game they will come out ready for and a win that should give Philadelphia momentum for the rest of the season.
Dallas Cowboys: 9-7
Dallas had the best draft of any team in the league. Despite that, I still have them only two wins above .500. Luckily, the Cowboys play in the NFC East and that’s good enough to win the division. The Dallas offense may put up 50 points a game, but their defense may give up 51. New head coach Mike McCarthy relied on an offense—specifically one person—to carry an entire team. Look how that turned out.
Breakdown:
As I sit here and write this, Prescott and the Cowboys still haven’t come to terms on an extension, and he’s looking for a lucrative one at that—lucky Patrick Mahomes. If a deal isn’t reached, I don’t expect the franchise quarterback to sit out, but if they get a deal done, I expect the Cowboys to be in a miserable salary cap position. They already have cap restrictions that forced them to let top cornerback Byron Jones walk away and sign with the Miami Dolphins, and they will soon have more restrictions that will most likely force them to lose Leighton Vander Esch, Zack Martin, and more. What does all this mean? It means Dallas better win a super bowl this season before the team loses the rest of its money to the former 4th round selection from Mississippi State. This roster is good, and they’ll become “champions,” but of their division, not the league. I have the Cowboys coming out of the gates slow, losing two of their first three. Prescott won’t proclaim “Relax” to the fans, but he’ll lead his team to a 4-game win-streak following the 1-2 start to settle down those same, unnerved fans. Dallas’ biggest games come primarily in the second half of the season. In Week 8, the Cowboys travel to Philly and lose the first of that two-game series. In Week 11, they head to Minnesota following their bye, but that will also result in a loss when Adam Thielen lights up the putrid Dallas secondary. Week 15 will feature the upset of the season when they’ll come out on top against the San Francisco 49ers at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys last huge matchup will come in Week 16, when they finish that season split with the Eagles and win a game that essentially clinches the NFC East crown. A 9-7 record is nothing to gloat about, but it’s good enough to secure a division title, a playoff spot, and a home playoff game. Can America’s Team make a shocking run when they enter January football? (Probably not.)
Surprise Game:
The Cowboys biggest surprise of the season is going to come in Week 15 when they beat the defending NFC Conference champions, but that was already discussed in a previous edition, so let’s take a look at their Week 1 matchup in Los Angeles when Dallas will face the Rams in their new stadium. This is probably a game that most observers will expect the Cowboys to win, but I see it ending up as a tough first week loss. Dallas will have early struggles with McCarthy’s new style and the Rams will be giddy about their new, empty stadium (it’s not going to be empty because of the coronavirus).
New York Giants: 6-10
Danny Dimes and Saquon Barkley are back in action for their second year together. Even though I have their record this low, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Giants pulled off a few upsets and finished 8-8, maybe even 9-7. But that’s the best case scenario: The G-Men are still missing a few key pieces keeping them from serious playoff contention.
Breakdown:
The Giants season starts with a huge swing and a miss—whoops, wrong Giants. I’m just holding out hope for the return of baseball, let me have this. Anyway, the New York Football Giants start the season in the worst way imaginable by losing their first five games, and eight of their first nine. They’ll turn it around late in the season when their schedule becomes more friendly, but by that time it’ll be too late for a playoff push. Their season starts against the Steelers, then they travel to Chicago, play host to San Francisco, and then travel to Los Angeles—to face the Rams, not the Chargers—and Dallas. This sort of start to the season is a tough assignment for any team, and one the young Giants are not ready for. They will shockingly split their games against their division opponents—all wins coming at MetLife—making up half of their six wins. The biggest game of the G-Men’s season comes in Week 15 when the Cleveland Browns come into Dirty Jerz. Although Odell Beckham Jr. has already returned to play a game at MetLife, which was against the Jets in Week 2 of last season, he comes back to face the team that selected him 12th overall in the 2014 NFL Draft this time around. Beckham will see the ball come his way often, but it won’t be enough to stop his former team. The Giants will win that game, and since I’m feeling a little crazy, they’ll win it on a last second field goal. This victory will be one of three in their final four games of the 2020 season. So: A terrible start to the season, but a decent finish, and the chance to get ready for 2021.
Surprise Game:
The surprise game for the Giants comes during the last week of the NFL season. It’ll be a non-essential matchup between long time nemeses: The Cowboys will have the East locked up and won’t be able to gain ground in the playoff picture resulting in either resting starters, or not trying, or both. The Giants will take advantage of their golden opportunity and Joe Judge will close his first head coaching season with a win.
Washington Redskins: 2-14
I absolutely adore the move to bring in Ron Rivera, and I’m so glad they didn’t choke and took Chase Young with the number two pick in this year’s draft. Once Rivera and his team get on the same page, and if the Redskins hit on another great prospect early in next year’s draft, they’ll be a fun team to watch.
Breakdown:
Redskins fans, hear me out: This record is absolutely crushing, but is, without a doubt, the best case scenario. Let’s be real: if Washington is the shocker team of the season—a la Leicester City in the 2015 English Premier League—and sneak into the playoffs, they aren’t going anywhere far. With the 2-14 record, they have a developmental season together, a season where they have been taught their new system with Rivera, and have a great chance at the number one overall selection. I’m not going to sit here and pretend I know which college prospects are going top 5 in 2021—outside of Trevor Lawrence—but I do know that the Redskins can potentially draft a game changer for their offense. With a 2-14 record, Dwayne Haskins will be heavily scrutinized and his job will potentially be up for grabs, but I don’t think next season should be the ultimate determinant for his future in Washington. Depending on his 2020 performance, I think the Redskins should give him one more chance and use their pick at any position other than quarterback. This prediction reminds me a lot of what I wrote about the Lions: I am very high on both teams’ young cores and futures, but this season is going to be a wash for both organizations. I know I didn’t focus on their schedule at all, but why should I when they’re going 2-14? It seems pretty self explanatory to me—Washington is going to be bad, but I would get very excited for the years to come.
Surprise Game:
I am going to change this section up for the Redskins, and the Redskins only, unless I change my mind at any time moving forward, in which case I will not be changing this only for Washington. The Redskins don’t have a surprise outcome, because, again, they’re 2-14. But, the surprise contest will come in Week 14 when Washington flies across the country and visits beautiful Santa Clara, California. The 49ers will win the game, but the margin will be much closer than expected: The Redskins have a phenomenal front seven that will disrupt Kyle Shanahan’s ground game on offense all day long. Granted, the Niners will do the same to Washington, but it will be a low scoring affair, and one that the Niners only win by four points.
Nicholas Stanziale is a student at Marist College and a prospective broadcaster and journalist. He lives and dies by sports, especially by how the Green Bay Packers, New York Yankees, New Jersey Devils, and Villanova Basketball are doing.
An Organization at a Crossroads: A Decade of Coming Up Short For The Tampa Bay Lightning
By Tom Shea
Let’s stick with the whole “chokers who’re also named after weather” theme after the last article I did on the Oklahoma City Thunder—we’ll get to the 2010-11 Heat later. Since the last lockout (always have to specify which one when the NHL’s involved), the Lightning have the most regular season points of any team. It’s actually quite easy to see why that might’ve slipped through the cracks: They were the decade’s hallmark underachiever in the sport. Right behind them in points were the Washington Capitals, Boston Bruins, and Pittsburgh Penguins. Those teams have combined for four Cups in that span, while the Bolts have only a single Cup Final loss to show for it. Their 128-point season last year was the best of anyone’s, but all it took was losing Hedman and Kucherov to knock over that Jenga tower of a team.
Sprinkle in a pair of game 7 Eastern Finals L’s, and you’ve got the perfect cocktail of shame and unmet expectations.
Let’s go back a half decade to 2014-15: Tampa’s in a leadership transition, with Stamkos having been anointed captain that year and former New York Rangers captain Ryan Callahan on board, replacing franchise stalwart Marty St. Louis. The year before, they rocketed to 101 points after a miserable 40 point effort (albeit in 48 games, good job NHL) in 2012-13. The silver lining of that lousy campaign was that it secured them third overall pick Jonathan Drouin, who didn’t play with the big club in ’13-’14 but was tearing the QMJHL to shreds, putting up over 2 points a night.
Once again, the Bolts hummed along, logging 108 points in ’14-’15. In a particularly dry scoring year around the league, they were the only team with 4 players with 60+ points. Even Callahan bagged 24 goals, the same number he had over the ensuing four seasons.
During the 2015 playoffs, Tampa showed the kind of perseverance the team gets lambasted for not having today, clinching series in a game seven and a game six. Hedman rallied from a broken finger that cost him 23 games, finishing second in playoff points among d-men behind Chicago’s Duncan Keith. The “triplets” line of Ondrej Palat-Tyler Johnson-Nikita Kucherov maintained their regular season success, combining for two points a game.
But they met their match in the Blackhawks and Corey Crawford, who stonewalled them to one or fewer goals in four of the six games in their series. Nonetheless, it was a stellar season for a franchise who’d won just two playoff games in the previous nine years.
Like the Thunder I recently covered and my Pens in 2008, the loss to the Hawks was simply brushed off as a case of a young team being a year away. Surely 2015-16 would culminate like it did for the Pens in 2009, with the previous year merely serving as a stepping stone to the Cup?
Those hopes were largely derailed once Stamkos went out with a blood clot right before the 2016 playoffs. Tampa still had enough juice to get to the Eastern Finals, but even a valiant comeback by Stammer in game 7 couldn’t get them past the Pens. Between Ben Bishop and Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa’s goaltending was amazing—the Lightning just ran into a team that was one of the best in recent memory once Mike Sullivan took over as coach in Pittsburgh. You have to think Stamkos at 100% might’ve been enough to push Tampa over the top—chalk it up to bad luck.
What wasn’t an aberration, however, were Stamkos’ injury woes. A month into 2016-17, he tore his meniscus and would miss all but 17 games. The Bolts felt the ripples profusely, plummeting from seventh in 5v5 goals/60 to 20th. To clutch at another silver lining, it further validated the team-friendly deal they signed Stammer to that offseason (8 years $68M; even after adjusting for inflation, that’s still nearly $2 million less per year than the other recent superstar unrestricted free agent: John Tavares). But they missed the playoffs after playing in the Cup Final just two years before.
Fortunately, there was cause for optimism thanks to breakout seasons by Kucherov, Hedman, and Drouin, who each broke their respective career highs in points by an average of 20 points.
2017-18 featured even more breakouts, this time by Brayden Point and Yanni Gourde. Management had astutely prepared for the wave of blossoming forwards—they’d traded Drouin for stud defense prospect Mikhail Sergachev, who thrived right away at just 19. All was well as the Bolts cruised to 113 points and the top seed in the East. They were the league’s top scoring team by a wide margin. Five players on their roster scored over 60 points.
Despite all that, Tampa still couldn’t get over the hump: The Caps took them down in seven. Holtby, who didn’t even start the playoffs, capped the series off with a pair of shutouts in the final two games. Even home ice throughout hadn’t been enough to push the Lightning over the top.
Up through this point, the myriad playoff shortcomings can’t be excused, but they can at least be rationalized. The Bolts were two games shy of three Cup appearances in four years—they could’ve been hockey’s version of the ’90’s Bills. But they were still a young team, particularly up front: 11 of the 12 forwards on the roster were under 30. There was reason to believe that they’d be even better in 2018-19: Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller would be in their first full seasons with the team after coming over before the previous year’s trade deadline.
Sure enough, Tampa was a transcendental buzz-saw, finishing with 128 points, the fourth most ever in a season. At one point they won 19 of 21 games. Three scorers all had 90+ points, and each of them finished among the top 13 scorers in the entire NHL. Kucherov potted the most points in a season since Crosby in 2006-07.
But, as you might’ve gleaned, Kuchy did not hoist the Cup en route to the Conn Smythe. Enter the Columbus Blue Jackets, who were admittedly stronger than a typical second wildcard after trading for Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel as the Ottawa Senators disintegrated. There was also concern on Tampa’s end with Hedman just coming back for the playoffs after missing the final four games of the regular season with the ever-ominous upper body injury.
Still, the Blue Jackets were merely meant to serve as an appetizer for the Bolts in a cakewalk run to the Cup. So, of course, things immediately went south—like, Antarctica south. Come for the blown three goal lead in game 1, stay for the seven goals allowed in an elimination game. Look up Murphy’s Law in the dictionary and you’ll see a picture of the handshake line at the end of this series. The Lightning weren’t just swept—they got mauled, ultimately losing by an 11-goal differential. Yeah, Hedman and Kuchy missed 3 games, but there was no rationalizing this failure, which the Tampa Twitter account was quick to confirm.
What we have now is an intriguing crossroads down south: The gut reaction for management would’ve been to make wholesale changes, or at least can head coach Jon Cooper. Not only did none of that happen, but the entire team sans J.T. Miller returned, and that was a cap dump that netted the Lightning a first round draft pick. Tampa management—recently turned over from Steve Yzerman, the previous front-office mastermind that built this iteration of the Lightning and bailed to rebuild the Detroit Red Wings, to his protege Julien BriseBois—is fading the notion that the choking caused locker room deterioration.
It’s ostensibly worked out so far: After a hangover the first half of the season, the Lightning have played at a 123-point pace during the second half of this season—just shy of last year’s record-setting performance. It might be a little while until they prove observers right or wrong for good in the playoffs, but you have to imagine if they don’t go on a deep run, management won’t be as benevolent this time around.
Tom Shea, known to his friends as Thomas!, is, admittedly, a bit of a charlatan. He is brilliantly able to conceal his spoiled Steelers and Penguins fandom under the guise that his Pirates anguish makes him relatable to the masses. You can find him on Twitter @TomShea5ft11. No description can prepare you for that experience.
Jack Goldman is the publisher and editor of this newsletter, as well as an independent reporter who has previously worked for The Heights and The Dorchester Reporter. In his spare time, he’s a student at Boston College.