More Like Super Thursday...
It’s A View Off a Ledge’s third edition, and it’s a Super Tuesday wrap-up, as well as a gigantic news dump on Massachusetts politics.
Plus: Tom Shea on the Toronto Maple Leafs and our first edition of the Garbage section. Check out the introductory post for details on what Garbage is.
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Links and Thoughts: Biden’s Surge, National Coronavirus Economic Package, and a Busy Week at the State Capital
We’ll start with Super Tuesday:
Former Vice President Joe Biden won big on Super Tuesday, securing 10 states and currently sits at a haul of 433 delegates to Senator Bernie Sanders’ 388. The difference doesn’t seem large, but for Biden to go from having questions asked about whether he should drop out after pitiful finishes in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries to shocking Sanders and Senator Elizabeth Warren in Texas, Maine, Massachusetts, and Minnesota has the political world talking about a comeback for the ages. His effort was good enough that The Boston Globe has literally just reported as I finished typing that last doozy of a sentence that Warren is dropping out of the race—she finished third in Massachusetts, which may have been the death knell for her campaign. The decision to drop out wasn’t a clear one initially, though—the FiveThirtyEight live blog on Super Tuesday reported that Warren’s campaign sent out a fundraising email that night after results came in, despite the senator’s poor performance at the polls. At the time, the consensus was that she could only put together a comeback via a brokered convention.
Sanders’ story is far from over: Biden may have won many of the Super Tuesday states, but the Vermont senator rolled to a victory in his home state and is currently on track to win California—more mail-in votes are yet to be counted, which will decide the margin of victory. The biggest story coming out of Super Tuesday was that early-voters and late-decision makers massively disagreed over who should be president—early-voters broke big-time for Sanders, while people who voted on the last day tended to vote for Biden after former South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar dropped out of the presidential primary and endorsed Biden. Klobuchar’s decision may have swung the entire Minnesota race to Biden, who was projected to finish either third or fourth (behind Klobuchar, Sanders, and Warren as well) before Klobuchar pulled the plug after the South Carolina primary.
Yeah, since the last time I sent this thing out, the South Carolina primary happened. Seems like years ago, but Biden’s win in the state where he drew final battle lines changed the shape of the entire primary. It prompted Buttigieg and Klobuchar’s dropouts, which fueled Biden’s overperformance on Super Tuesday. Life is about narrative, and the narrative has gone from massively in Sanders’ favor after the Vermont senator unseated Biden as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination after the Nevada and New Hampshire primaries to fueling Biden’s entire political operation.
Typically, I’ll post the FiveThirtyEight forecast here, but the Super Tuesday results aren’t fully counted so it hasn’t been turned back on yet. The website’s analysts are projecting a major swing in Biden’s direction—I think it’s safe to assume that the Super Tuesday results were not within the 50 percent of projected outcomes, which presumably would’ve projected Sanders as almost assuredly holding a delegate lead coming out of Super Tuesday rather than the current situation. The New York Times’ The Upshot currently has Biden projected to win 670 delegates coming out of Super Tuesday once every vote is counted, while Sanders is projected at 589.
I’m not sure what the odds for a “no majority” outcome in FiveThirtyEight’s projections are going to be when they turn the forecast back on, but how that compares to Biden and Sanders’ chances will be a point of interest for me. I’ve referred to that outcome as the contested convention outcome previously, but it’s starting to look like it just means Biden and Sanders will need to make deals to gain delegates—former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg is projected to get 104 delegates—not an assured projection at all, given that it’s unclear how many states he’s going to be able to keep his delegates in (he has to hold at least 15 percent in individual state polls in order to receive delegates, there’s a chance in some states where he stands at 16 percent or so he could dip below 15 percent in final vote counts, which would eat into the larger projection), most of which I assume will vote for Biden now that Bloomberg has also dropped out and endorsed the former vice president. I assume the “no majority” outcome projection is going to fall in the wake of the race winnowing to two candidates—it’s just a lot easier for either Biden or Sanders to go ahead and run away with the nomination now with less candidates eating into their delegate counts in the coming primaries. One of them needs to get to 1,991 delegates to win the nomination. There is a long way to go.
The local angle on Super Tuesday is interesting in that Biden’s wins in Massachusetts and Maine were absolutely shocking—it took forever for news outlets to call the Maine primary, which Biden ended up carrying by just a single percentage point, but he carried Massachusetts by six points in the same week where Sanders came to Massachusetts and got massive turnout at rallies in Worcester and Boston. He only ended up winning Worcester by three percentage points, lost Springfield, and lost Boston by a slim margin. For the details, check out Stephanie Murray’s vital account of the night either on her much better newsletter or her Twitter account.
Warren won Cambridge by a healthy margin and Somerville by four points over Sanders, but was weak everywhere else in the state. Sanders won some key areas like Lowell, Chelsea, Everett, Malden, and Salem, but Biden won the most Gateway cities (Attleboro, Haverhill, Peabody, Quincy, Taunton, etc.) and essentially swept the suburbs, according to Murray.
The win was surprising enough that President Donald Trump logged onto the Twitter machine to chime in yesterday.
The other major story continuing to play out this week comes on the health front: COVID-19, a.k.a. the coronavirus.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed an $8.3 billion coronavirus economic package, which had bipartisan support. The funding concentrates mostly on “discretionary spending to bolster vaccine development,” per Politico.
If the bill passes unedited through the Senate and is signed by the President, states would receive no less than $4 million each within the next 30 days.
There’s always a local angle, and Massachusetts lawmakers have been working on the COVID-19 issue as well. Governor Charlie Baker announced the MBTA is going to begin “routinely disinfecting surfaces at transit stations and on its vehicles” while also asking colleges and high schools to cancel overseas travel by students—MBTA General Manager Steve Poftak later said routinely is the equivalent of four hours, while vehicles will be disinfected “on a daily basis,” per the Boston Globe. Over 700 people in Massachusetts were self-quarantined and being monitored for the virus as of Wednesday morning.
Boston College has cancelled a couple of abroad programs, including Italian programs last week, but a Heights article published last week noted 27 students are still enrolled in programs in Italy. No further announcements have been made by the University as to whether more study abroad programs will be cancelled in response to the Governor’s request, though Vice President of Student Affairs Joy Moore sent an email to the community prior to Spring Break last Friday urging everyone to remain abreast of any developments regarding the virus outbreak in order to try to stay healthy.
Speaking of BC, the Department of Education confirmed to me that BC isn’t under civil investigation over not reporting foreign gifts—the department has launched an investigation and updated various guidances regarding foreign gifts in response to billions in previously unreported foreign gifts at universities nationwide. That doesn’t mean that BC isn’t going to be one of the universities that releases previously unreported foreign gifts, but it would seem that if BC is one of those schools, they didn’t break the law, nor did they actively not disclose such gifts for malicious reasons. More info on all this is due out later in the spring.
UMass Amherst told the Globe they would adhere to Baker’s guidance about abroad programs.
The announcement came shortly after two COVID-19 cases were identified in Rhode Island, both involving people who had gone abroad as a part of an educational trip.
Some quick-hitters:
The Massachusetts House of Representatives passed a bill last night that would raise the gas tax and ride-hailing fees in order to put $600 million toward transportation funds, per the Globe. The tax hike is by five cents—Mass. Residents will be on the hook for a 29 cent per gallon tax if the bill is signed into law. Ride-share fees would rise by a dollar in most cases, though lawmakers told the Globe costs won’t be passed onto riders. Massachusetts ran a budget surplus last year and has directed plenty of funds to the MBTA in the past, but with the sudden economic downturn due to COVID-19, lawmakers chose to pursue a transportation bill tackling broader infrastructural issues now, according to the Globe.
Baker released an economic development bill including $240 million in funds for Western Massachusetts, according to the State House News Service.
A study was released last week by the MBTA explaining how “an income-based MBTA fare option could attract tens of thousands of new rapid transit and bus riders,” according to WBUR.
UMass’s chancellor talked about “free college” coming with “strings attached” this week, per MassLive and The Springfield Republican.
WBUR’s Martha Bebinger wrote about how Medicare For All will affect Massachusetts hospitals.
The Massachusetts Senate is considering a bill that would allow for traffic enforcement cameras at stoplights, according to Boston.com.
The Globe’s Jon Chesto broke down what could be next for the site of the Hynes Convention Center if it’s sold.
WGBH’s Tori Bedford wrote about how minority-owned marijuana business owners are being affected by the wait for operation licenses.
Sportsnet’s Hazel Mae and ESPN’s Jeff Passan say Jose Bautista is a pitcher now. Reminded me of Michael Baumann of The Ringer’s pinned tweet, one of my favorites.
NASCAR continues to be the best and weirdest, per Bob Pockrass.
The NHL continues to be the worst, per Jeff Veillette’s analysis of a bananas Colin Campbell quote.
So to make you feel better, let’s get back to NASCAR being the best, featuring Martin Truex Jr. swearing at his teammates on the radio with some string instruments keeping us happy in the background.
SHEA: Could The Toronto Maple Leafs be This Year’s St. Louis Blues?
By Tom Shea
Picking a team to win the Stanley Cup can feel like throwing darts with delirium tremens. The Tampa Bay LIghtning’s explosive diarrhea in round 1 last year proved that there’s no such thing as a lock. With margins so slim, the champion can emerge from the woodwork; hell, the Blues were dead last in the entire league the same calendar year in which they won it all.
A decent facsimile this year is the Toronto Maple Leafs. While they weren’t quite Tim-Thomas’-bunker deep in the standings (they were 11th in the East when they fired Mike Babcock and Sheldon Keefe took over on Nov. 20), they could be poised for a similar heater.
For starters, look no further than the coach getting the pink slip. Not only did the Blues can Mike Yeo last year in favor of Craig Berube, but they did so on nearly the exact same date: Nov. 19. Teams icing the head honcho mid-season only to hoist the Cup within a matter of months is kind of a thing in the NHL: 4 of the last 11 champs went all the way with an interim boss—my Pens even did it twice.
Now, correlation doesn’t always imply causation—if it did The Apprentice would bring back Trump and have him break the news to every coach in the league. It’s an odd phenomenon, one that I’d like to run a piece on except I truly have no clue why it is. I’m open to any ideas, I can be reached at tshea4@villanova.edu, or my alternative email cuckthefoachesunion@aol.com.
There are additional factors supporting the Leafs besides just “they fired their coach.” Since Keefe took over, they rank 4th in the league in 5v5 expected goal percentage (xGF%), the proportion of “expected goals” registered by that team—the stat has proven to be predictive of actual goal scoring.
The 5v5 distinction is vital since the zebras call fewer penalties in the playoffs. For reference, last year’s Blues were the best in this stat after they sent Yeo packing. It’s certainly not foolproof: The Caps are a prime example of a team with consistently middling xGF% that “overachieves.” In their case, Alex Ovechkin changes the calculus—Ovie turns the one in a million Death Star shot into, like, a one in five. Conversely, there's a reason teams like the Carolina Hurricanes with awesome expected numbers but generally paltry forwards always come up short.
The aforementioned point is actually another feather in the Leafs’ cap. Even if the expected goals aren’t there (i.e. they start playing sloppy), they have elite shooters who can bail them out. They lead the league in goals under Keefe and it’s not really close—the gap between them and 2nd place Tampa exceeds the gap between Tampa and 6th place Vancouver. Auston Matthews is the best pure goal scorer we’ve seen since Ovie. The depth is so strong that they had the luxury of punting on promising young winger Trevor Moore for a backup goalie. Four scoring lines is the Dippin’ Dots of the NHL, and the Leafs are ahead of the curve.
However, despite the Leafs organization begging and pleading with me not to, I will also be discussing the defense. They rank 17th in opponent expected goal rate. Last year’s Blues ranked 2nd. To be fair, the Leafs’ D-corps has been stricken by every plague imaginable (can someone make sure Mr. Matthews put the lamb blood on his door?). Their two best guys, Morgan Rielly and Jake Muzzin, are still on the mend and will likely end up missing a combined 50 games by season’s end. Even when healthy, though, the defense is a staunch Achilles heel, especially given the inexperience of players such as Justin Holl and Rasmus Sandin.
It’s not insurmountable: the champion Caps of two years ago ranked just 27th, and the Penguins the year before just 26th. But there’s sparse precedent for a sieve-ish team going the distance.
Of course, the panacea for sucky D is a goalie standing on his head. Fortunately for the Leafs, they have one of the league’s stalwarts in Fredrik Andersen. Now, he hasn’t come close to playing like it this year; out of the top 62 goalies (2 per team) in minutes played, he’s ranked 44th in delta save percentage (dsv%), which weighs actual save percentage against the quality of shots the goalie’s faced.
But that’s part of the whole sleeping giant appeal: Since coming into the league, Freddy ranks 13th in that same stat. This sets them aside from their potential first round opponent the Lightning, who surpass them in just about every area on paper, except Andrei Vasilevsky ranks 53rd in that same area. It's pretty safe to say that it’s widely accepted that goalies are voodoo, but it doesn't hurt to have a guy with a track record.
Though I think the Leafs are definitely contenders, not even Simone-Biles-level mental gymnastics can convince me that they’re favorites. Even if they scoot by Tampa, the likely President’s Trophy winning Boston Bruins will likely be waiting in the wings. They sit right behind the Keefe Leafs in xGF%, not to mention they’ve commandeered the Leafs’s heads with more real estate than a Texas oil tycoon. [Editor’s note: I did not make him say this.]
But even after their second half tear last year, the Blues finished just third in their division, the same spot the Leafs are in now. Just don’t be too nonplussed if the Leafs’ faithful get a reprieve from their regularly scheduled summer programming of fear and loathing.
Tom Shea, known to his friends as Thomas!, is, admittedly, a bit of a charlatan. He is brilliantly able to conceal his spoiled Steelers and Penguins fandom under the guise that his Pirates anguish makes him relatable to the masses. You can find him on Twitter @TomShea5ft11. No description can prepare you for that experience.
Editor’s note: If you’d like to contribute some writing, under any genre, to A View Off a Ledge, email me at goldmajk@bc.edu.
Another Editor’s note: If you’re an adult or someone who wants to give me a job, you can go ahead and stop reading because it’s Garbage Time [rip].
GARBAGE: Canadian Sports Networks Pwning, Judge Judy, and f—k’n gravel
Consider everything in this section is fiction unless there’s a link. If anything written here patterns real life events, it’s a coincidence. Also, this definitely isn’t Jack Goldman writing this.
Judge Judy hasn’t been renewed, but the good news is the good judge is going to come back with a new show. Folks,,,,, What does this mean for the state of our country?! MY COLUMN:
JUDGE JUDY TOLD ELLEN HER SHOW IS ENDING AFTER 25 SEASONS, SOUND THE MOTHER FORKING ALARMS BECAUSE THE CORONAVIRUS IS NO LONGER OUR GREATEST THREAT TO OUR FREEDOM.
You thought a heckin’ beer virus was gonna take us all out? Well, brobuchar, do I ever have bad news for you.
I’ve watched all 6,240 episodes of Judge Judy that have been aired until now, in addition to owning the two DVD specials: Judge Judy: Justice Served and Judge Judy: Second to None. My biggest takeaway is that if Judge Judy goes off the air, the economy is going to tank.
Literal tens of millions sit down in front of their TV in the middle of the day and watch this show instead of doing something. Without it, people will die, people will be fired, people will not buy Mountain Dew anymore.
You want to see Black Monday again? Guess what, it’s coming the day after the final airing of Judge Judy.
Who doesn’t want to watch a scorching hot 77 year-old babe fork up some tainted souls via the all important lane of f—kin’ capital J JUSTICE? I don’t know a single person on this planet who isn’t watching my boy Judes every day for at least three hours. There ain’t nothin’ that’s going to fill the hole in my heart left by the absence of my one true love: Judy Sheindlin. I don’t know how she’s going to fill her time now either. She can come spend an afternoon with me anytime...
[Editor’s note: From MassLive: Judge Judy has already announced the launch of a new show named Judy Justice. She is paid $47 million per year and got $100 million in a deal with CBS to sell her programming archives.]
There are two sports networks in Canada: The Sports Network (TSN) and Sportsnet. Canadians are renowned for their creativity. On Feb. 25, TSN owned Sportsnet extremely hard online, an accomplishment that I assume is going to win TSN whatever Canada’s version of the medal of freedom is. Here is a transcript of the emergency meeting Sportsnet executives held after the tweet was released.
UNNAMED EXECUTIVE 1: Thank you all, all 6,000 unnamed Sportsnet executives, for being here today. I’ve gathered you here for this emergency meeting regarding our NHL trade deadline coverage: We lost to TSN again.
UNNAMED EXECUTIVE 2: Oh that’s not a big deal, that happens every year it’s why we bought the national rights, we’re punching upward!
UNNAMED EXECUTIVE 3: Yeah, when you’re two giant telecommunication companies worth billions of dollars duking it out at a nationwide level, losing the trade deadline viewership battle ain’t s—t in the long run, there was no need to gather all 17,000 of us in one conference room to talk about this.
UNNAMED EXECUTIVE 1: Well...the problem is that we didn’t just lose...TSN said we lost online.
[Silence in the room.]
UNNAMED EXECUTIVE 3: ...they said it online?
UNNAMED EXECUTIVE 4: Where online though?
UNNAMED EXECUTIVE 1: They released some statistics on Twitter—
UNNAMED EXECUTIVE 4: ON TWITTER? WHY DIDN’T YOU SAY THAT BEFORE HOW MANY PEOPLE SAW IT?
UNNAMED EXECUTIVE 1: Well, TSN tweeted it from their PR account which has 16 thousand followers.
[UNNAMED EXECUTIVE 5 jumps out the window]
UNNAMED EXECUTIVE 2 (crying, barely able to speak): Did they mention us specifically?
UNNAMED EXECUTIVE 1 (sighs): Well, unfortunately, yes. [An UNNAMED EXECUTIVE passes out.] They said their ratings were 81 percent higher than their closest competitor.
[Silence in the room.]
UNNAMED EXECUTIVE 3: Is that us?
UNNAMED EXECUTIVE 1: There are literally no other competitors, so yes.
[UNNAMED EXECUTIVE 3 begins vomiting uncontrollably.]
UNNAMED EXECUTIVE 6 (pinching the bridge of his nose, because every one of these executives I assume is a straight white man and that’s like our whole vibe): What were the engagement numbers?
UNNAMED EXECUTIVE 1 (slowly): It got 63 retweets and 497 likes.
[Sportsnet is shut down permanently. Google says there’s a little over 37.5 million people in Canada.]
I mean, I assume somebody had to tell a bunch of public officials that this happened and I just enjoy the idea of various people being like, “Wait, gravel? They had to close parts of the tunnel for f—king gravel?”
Jack Goldman is the publisher of this here newsletter and an independent reporter who in his spare time goes to Boston College. You shouldn’t follow him on Twitter @the_manofgold and you definitely shouldn’t hit that button down there and subscribe to A View From a Ledge.