Mass. Enters Critical Virus Stage Next Week, Plus More NHL Offseason
Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker said the state will see COVID-19 case surge between April 7 and April 17, plus we preview the Jets and Blackhawks offseasons.
Stay safe out there people. Sorry there’s so much sports in this newsletter at the moment, not much else to do at the moment. First section will include most important points in Stephanie Murray’s vital Politico Massachusetts Playbook newsletters from this week, plus a Boston College update. Then: we’ll do that hockey.
Oncoming Case Surge and Revenue Shortfall Due to Tax Day Delay Cloud Massachusetts’ Future Plans
Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker announced on Tuesday that Massachusetts is projected to have its case surge within the next two weeks as it continues to fight the same issues state governments nationwide are working through: tax shortfalls and massive healthcare and unemployment spikes that are taking place already, despite the surge ahead—the Boston Globe reported yesterday that Boston’s Federal Reserve Chief Eric Rosengren expects unemployment to hit 10 percent, a 6.5 percent increase over last month’s totals.
The governor has also extended the state stay-at-home advisory to May 4. President Donald Trump extended the nationwide recommendations to April 30 and approved a major disaster declaration for Massachusetts, at Baker’s request, allowing for more federal money to be allocated to the state via the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s funds, according to WGBH.
Stephanie Murray reported Monday the state is encouraging safety equipment donations while it waits for its share of the federal stockpile—the New York Times reported this week that the stockpile has defective equipment, making donations even more important. The state opened an online portal to begin the donation process this week.
Murray also wrote on Monday that state officials in Western Massachusetts and Cape Cod residents are petitioning Baker’s administration to limit the short-term rental industry and close the bridges to the cape in order to protect areas of the state that don’t have the same level of access to health care that Boston-area residents have.
On an all-too-quick brighter note, restaurants could be receiving some aid: State representative Jaime Eldridge filed a bill this week that, if passed, would essentially force insurance contracts to be reinterpreted as covering “the loss of use and occupancy and business interruption” under any policy that already covers “loss or damage to property.” The reinterpretation would only apply from March 10 until whatever day Baker lifts his emergency stay-at-home recommendation, and only restaurants with less than 150 employees would be eligible for the insurance payouts. .
The bill has a multitude of cosponsors, but it’s not clear or certain how the proposed legislation could change before it’s voted upon—whenever that is. Odd are this move will draw serious resistance from insurance companies, but perhaps the current climate will encourage insurers to endorse the temporary reinterpretation if more stipulations are fleshed out in the coming days. Boston Magazine reported some restaurateurs are already suing their insurers for not covering coronavirus related business shortfalls, so the path of most resistance seems most likely. In a strange coincidence in terms of the nexus this newsletter tends to cover, the attorney who brought the idea to Eldridge based off a similar bill that’s been filed in New Jersey was Eldridge’s classmate at Boston College Law School
The potential saving grace for insurers is that after they make payouts, they’ll be eligible to apply for reimbursement from “designated state funds,” per Boston. If this bill provides insurers a middle ground between potentially losing court cases and having to make full payouts without help from the state government, it could incentivize passing a bill in one form or another rather than fighting against the legislation as hard as possible.
Massachusetts itself is in a bit of a bind—the state is federally mandated to pass a balanced budget, and based on the tax day-delay, WGBH is reporting the state budget is projected to have a $3 billion shortfall instead of its usual surplus layout. Baker is asking state legislators to “approve borrowing to make ends meet in the lean months,” according to WGBH.
The legislature isn’t only concentrating on restaurants: the state Senate “is poised to vote” on legislation that would prevent evictions in Massachusetts, according to the Globe. The bill prevents “many court-ordered evictions for 90 days,” according to the Globe, and will also bar landlords from charging late fees on overdue rent due to the coronavirus-related economic downturn.
Let’s do some other quick hitters:
The waves of the oil price war and the virus’ economic effects have reached Massachusetts’ gas stations—the average price of regular gas has fallen to $2.05, according to the Associated Press. The Financial Times data has NYMEX crude oil (more expensive stuff) and Brent crude oil (the less expensive stuff) as having lost a tad under 60 percent of its value since the new year. Prices are actually rallying this morning since Trump announced he believes a deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia that would cease the ongoing price war will be agreed to in the next few days. The Financial Times noted that Brent’s value is at its lowest since 2002—so the low prices in Massachusetts may not last for long.
Boston College announced its first summer session will take place exclusively online—that session takes place from May 13 until June 19. A decision on the university’s second, and final, session of summer classes—they take place between June 21 and July 31—hasn’t been made. No decision has been made on BC’s commencement proceedings, which were supposed to be held on May 18. There isn’t nearly the potential time crunch for Commencement as there is for classes, but that the ceremony would fall within the first summer session, now moved online, isn’t a good sign. University President Rev. William P. Leahy, S.J., said in a letter to students recently that BC will find a way to honor graduating students on campus and in person, even if Commencement is cancelled. This is my speculation, but I assume that could mean just a delay in ceremonies to later this summer if issues stemming from the pandemic subside over the next couple of months, or ceremonies a year from now honoring both this year’s and next year’s graduating classes. A petition has circled asking BC to hold Commencement ceremonies in person rather than online in recent weeks. Included in BC’s announcement is that the current student population is now down to 312 after initially sitting at over 500 students when forced move-out proceedings began a few weeks ago. Four students are in isolation at the moment as a part of precautionary measures relating to coronavirus—one student on campus has been diagnosed with COVID-19 since the outbreak on U.S. shores.
NHL Offseason Previews: The Winnipeg Jets (Their Fans Are Going to be Mad)
By Tom Shea
It’s important to look after those less fortunate during these turbulent times. For my next installment in my NHL cap preview series, I’ll be acknowledging the existence of the Winnipeg Jets. They’ve won just 2 playoff series since their inception as the bastard spawn of the defunct Atlanta Thrashers. They played their first 2 seasons in a division where the closest team was 1,500 miles away. Their star defenseman, Dustin Byfuglien, decided he’d rather go fishing this year than play for them. They’re not even the premier Canadian heartland team—Edmonton has that covered. And, the coup de grace: they do not have an airport.
Given Elliotte Friedman’s recent report I’m still assuming a $81.5 million cap. For the sake of this argument, we’ll pretend that compliance buyouts won’t be a part of the offseason equation—for now. Thanks to Evolving Hockey for their excellent contract projections (worth the patronage!).
Jets
Current total allocation: $73.5 ($5.3M/player)
Total spots to fill: 8 ($8M remaining)
Most certain: Goaltender
Current allocation: $6.2M
Spots to fill: 1
The skaters are a mess—a third of the spots are open—but the goaltending is fairly stable in Winnipeg. Connor Hellebuyck was a man possessed last year: he led all starting goalies in 5v5 delta save % (dsv%) last year. His career to date has been like a moose-drawn carriage ride after eating too much poutine (really pulled out all the stops there). But that’s also inherent to the position: He’s still 12th in dsv% out of the top 31 guys in minutes played since he came into the league.
His cap hit just about reflects that (8th among goalies). And it’s even better when you consider that he’s signed for 4 more years—other shmucks will pass him in that time. He’s also only 26—the Jets are locked in with him and that’s a good thing.
The luxury of having a guy like Hellebuyck means that it doesn’t matter too much who the backup is, so long as he’s competent *cough cough Leafs.* Laurent Broissoit is likely gone and it’s hard to say that’s a crushing loss. His career numbers aren’t bad, but he’s also only played 68 career games—basically one whole season for a big-time starting goalie.
The cap crunch will prevent them from getting a stalwart reserve like Anton Khudobin or Jaro Halak. Don’t expect them to be in on a Ryan Miller sweepstakes—the American wouldn’t spend his last shot at a Cup in the Canadian hinterlands with a fringe playoff squad, and The Athletic reported he’s waiting until the coronavirus crisis ends to open a discussion on his future plans (which might just include retirement, and it’s safe to assume he’d rather retire than head out to Winnipeg). The best bet may be Manitoba Moose Mikhail Berdin, who showed some promise last year in his first season as the starter. Bottom line: Hellebuyck needs to stay healthy, but if he does then there’s more room for error here.
Medium certainty: forwards
Current allocation: $48.9M ($5.4M/player)
Spots to fill: 4
Much like my Penguins, there’s ostensibly quite a few holes, but pretty much all of the quality guys are spoken for. I admittedly haven’t done the math for every team, but I’d imagine that $5.4M/player will be one of the highest allocation marks for a forward corps in the league. 6 of the 8 wing spots are already filled with Patrik Laine, Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor, Mathieu Perreault and Andrew Copp. That’s not even counting restricted free agent Jack Roslovic, who fits the affordable young-guy-middle-tier-bridge deal profile to a T. If anything, there’s a logjam here that must be addressed.
Down the middle, Mark Scheifele is firmly entrenched as the top center. But the depth beyond that is much more of an enigma. They’ve gone after quick fixes like Kevin Hayes and Cody Eakin, but neither stuck. Bryan Little’s an incumbent, but he’s 32 and hasn’t been the same since signing his big extension 2 years ago. Fortunately, Andrew Lowry’s emerged as a diamond in the rough. You could make the argument that Copp is better than Little right now, but the Jets will likely feel pressure to make good on their investment. Expect Little to center the 2nd line and Lowry the 3rd.
The rest of the bottom six shouldn’t be much different, either. Mason Appleton has great possession numbers and will re-up on the cheap as a 24-year old RFA. Center Jason Harkins had a huge year in Manitoba and was solid in limited time with the big club, too—he’ll be back on a 6-figure deal as well. That leaves a single spot up for grabs: In lieu of plugging in the “marginal roster guys” filter on CapFriendly, closing my eyes, and picking a name, it’s a fairly safe bet to say Mark Letestu could be back, as this might be the last deal of the 35 year old’s career. Regardless, they’re in pretty good shape up front.
Least certain: Defense
Current allocation: $10.9M ($2.8M/player)
Spots to fill: 3
The chasm in certainty from the other two groups is bigger than Subway Jared’s jeans. The three allocations I listed don’t quite add up to the total because Byfuglien is still currently on the books, though that may not be the case for much longer as the two sides are rumored to be working towards terminating his contract. I’ll go out on a limb and say that talks have been slackened by corona but that they’ll eventually come to fruition. If they still have Buff’s cap hit but he doesn’t play then they’re really screwed.
Either way, there’s a s—t ton to fix on the blue line. The lone bright side is that the Jets are finally out from under the brutal Dmitry Kulikov contract, but aside from Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk, they’re basically throwing darts with the current group. Dylan DeMelo could return as a UFA, but he’ll be in for a decent raise no matter where he goes. They’ll have to resolve the Byfuglien fiasco before they start committing money to other guys.
The remaining internal options range from meh to ugh. Nathan Bealieu’s okay at best but should come fairly cheap. Tucker Poolman was leaned upon last year out of necessity, but his possession numbers are pretty poor. Carl Dahlstrom’s had ups and downs, but he hasn’t even racked up 1000 5v5 minutes, so who knows how indicative the sample is. Sami Niku has struggled thus far, but he’s only 23. With the current state of the defense, it makes sense to bring him back for close to league minimum and see if he can improve.
Desperate times call for desperate measures. My maybe-not-so-hot-take is that the Jets should trade Laine to shore up the D-corps. Laine’s just 21 and already one of the best goal scorers in the league, but he’s the epitome of a one trick pony. Winnipeg is teeming with depth on the wing and could replace Laine fairly easily. The Jets were like a student saying “f—k it, I’ll do that paper tomorrow” when they gave Laine a 2-year bridge deal, but now the pied piper needs his guappo. I think Hampus Lindholm makes sense. The Ducks are in the dregs and need to get younger. And their 27th ranked offense could use a stud up front.
CapFriendly prediction: $548,956 in cap space: https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/318748&post_id=1351822
Big picture:
Despite my roasting, this is a talented team with reason for optimism, especially if Hellebuyck can continue to stand on his head. As much as I would like to pivot into the clickbait business, I really do think a Laine for a d-man trade is not only good but necessary. It’s all the more important considering their window could be deceptively tight. In addition to Laine, Perreault, Lowry, Copp and Pionk are all free agents in 2021 as well. They’ll either have to pay mid-tier guys like stars or move on—neither is ideal but the latter is superior. St Louis and Colorado will be wagons for the foreseeable future. I know Paul Maurice just got extended, but the Jets are veering into s—t or get off the pot territory.
[Goldman’s note: The Laine for Lindholm trade is one-for-one in this scenario. Tom and I thought about the most likely form of the trade and settled on one-for-one, despite the anger from people in the comment section of the CapFriendly page we made. Perhaps consensus is that the Ducks would need to give up either draft pick(s) or another piece, but the value difference between Lindholm and Laine doesn’t appear to be massive to either Tom or I. Perhaps our analytics addled minds are undervaluing goal-scoring, but my instinct is that we’re going to be on the right side of history. Laine isn’t producing goals at a rate that is significantly superior to Lindholm’s defensive production. Both are essentially smack-dab in the second-tier of their respective positions: Laine isn’t MVP-level Taylor Hall, and his position as a winger devalues his scoring, while Lindholm isn’t Victor Hedman but is absolutely qualified to be a number one defenseman. Laine can be Phil Kessel, perhaps the evolved version, but that doesn’t mean he’s worth significantly more than a defenseman who may not be able to carry an entire d-corps to a Stanley Cup, but can certainly carry a team to the playoffs and farther if he’s surrounded by the right pieces. Or just toss one of Anaheim’s high draft picks into the deal to even it out if it makes you feel better (just know that you’re going to need Laine to score more than 35 goals/70 points to make it worth Anaheim’s while).]
Tom Shea, known to his friends as Thomas!, is, admittedly, a bit of a charlatan. He is brilliantly able to conceal his spoiled Steelers and Penguins fandom under the guise that his Pirates anguish makes him relatable to the masses. You can find him on Twitter @TomShea5ft11. No description can prepare you for that experience.
NHL Offseason Previews: The Chicago Blackhawks—My Word, What a Mess
By Jack Goldman
Well, if my first preview involved my hometown team, this preview involves my least favorite team outside of Montreal. Why don’t I like the Blackhawks? Oh, I can’t remember, something something anniversary of my heart getting ripped out whatever.
Given Elliotte Friedman’s recent report I’m still assuming a $81.5 million cap. For the sake of this argument, we’ll pretend that compliance buyouts won’t be a part of the offseason equation—for now. It should be noted that Chicago would be most helped by compliance buyouts of any of the teams we’ve previewed so far—they could cut ties with Zach Smith, Andrew Shaw, Brent Seabrook, Calvin de Haan, Olli Maatta, or if they really wanted to upset everyone Jonathan Toews and be justified for doing so. Thanks again to Evolving Hockey for their excellent contract projections (worth the patronage!).
Blackhawks
Current total allocation: $73.42M ($3.6M/player)
Total spots to fill: 3 ($8.07M remaining)
Note: Number of pending “valuable” unrestricted or restricted free agents the Blackhawks have: 5
Most certain: Defense
Current allocation: $40.4M ($3.13M/defenseman)
Spots to fill: 0
Alright, for the sake of this exercise I’ve tried to put aside my general hatred for this organization, and how was I repaid for that kindness? CapFriendly let me know that before I even did anything, the Blackhawks cap situation is such f—king garbage I was basically not allowed to do anything.
The most blatant example of that is this defense corps: The Blackhawks were a slightly above average defensive team in terms of raw goals against, the least in depth statistic of all time. Basically, the Blackhawks were unremarkable on defense. That’s okay if your offense is amazing, but the Hawks happen to be dead on with the average in terms of goals for this year too.
That’s also ok if you have any sort of navigability: Either you want to get worse, tank, and blow up your team so you can rebuild and start over, building your squad around new high draft picks that form the new core of your team—or you want cap room so you can go out and improve your team via free agency, OR you want to take high performers on your team that are superfluous and flip them via trade to shore up a weakness.
Chicago has NONE of those things. Every talented player on this roster is either extremely necessary (Patrick Kane, hello), or mediocre and overpaid (Jonathan Toews, you’d be much better for this exercise if you were being paid $5.5 million instead of $10.5 million).
That mediocre/overpaid category overfloweth on the defensive side of the Blackhawks ledger. Duncan Keith is past his prime but still effective and has one of those dumb contracts that are long enough that the cap hit is manipulated to be $5.5 million—both worth it and manageable despite Keith’s advancing age. Calvin de Haan and Olli Maatta dip more toward the overpaid and not especially effective group—if they weren’t both making over $4 million, they’d be fine pieces, but they are and that’s not great.
Then we get to Brent Seabrook, who has a higher cap hit for longer than Keith has remaining on his deal somehow. How did this $6.875 million monstrosity happen? I don’t know, but I remember everyone saying it was too much at the time so I’m just going to assume it was a stupid move and not do any further research into the context of that deal. It’s terrible, it’s an albatross, Seabrook is a negative value defenseman at this point in his career, sapped of both his mobility and basically every other talent he had, but he still wants to play. It’s his right—as long as he’s healthy (which isn’t insanely often), he’s got a right to a spot in the lineup unless Lou Lamoriello is flagrantly breaking NHL rules to screw Seabrook over.
So the Blackhawks are left with quite the conundrum: How do you improve your defensive corps when there’s literally zero spots left open on the back-end and your defensemen are mediocre for the most part?
You make trades and you pray.
Look, a Seabrook deal is either extremely costly or extremely dangerous. I choose dangerous: New Jersey would trade P.K. Subban’s giant—but shorter than Seabrook’s—contract for a bag of balls at this point, so I’m praying that the following deal could get a move done: Subban for Seabrook and Chicago’s 2020 third-round pick, as well as a 2020 first-round pick swap (at the moment, that’s just allowing NJD to move up one spot in this year’s draft, but that could obviously change). The first-round swap plus the third-round pick theoretically is enough value for NJD to take on Seabrook’s contract in return for a $2+ million discount off Subban’s punishing cap hit. The Devils can either turn around and flip Seabrook’s deal when they’re more competitive and move off a high round pick to make that deal happen a year or two down the road, or if they suck for longer they can use Seabrook as a tank-aid. As bad as the contract is, what’s most punishing about it is its length—Seabrook doesn’t come off the books for another four years (!!!!!). If the Devils sweat out two years of Seabrook, he’ll either be on long-term injured-reserve (his body is undeniably breaking down) or the Devils can flip his $6.8 million deal with only two years remaining on it during the 2022 offseason. It will be expensive, but they can take on other bad money that isn’t as punishing or retain some salary on the deal to make it palatable.
Look, the Devils aren’t getting a ton of value in this deal, but the issue for them is Subban. I’m tempted to say there are zero other teams in the league that will take Subban’s $9 million deal with no salary retention other than Chicago, and they get a higher first-round draft pick this year and an extra third despite Subban providing approximately one to two million dollars of on-ice production the last couple of years. His underlying numbers are down, his top-line numbers are down, I mean there are few defensemen who’ve fallen off the cliff harder than Subban has over the last two years. The Devils need out of the P.K. Subban game as soon as possible, and having to retain two to three million dollars on a future Seabrook salary-dump is better than having to retain four to five million on a Subban salary-dump now. Yes, they could play Subban and he’ll perform better than Seabrook, but the Devils aren’t going to be good—there’s no path to the playoffs for them over the next two years while Subban is on their team. Holding onto a player that expensive that provides so little is practically valueless for this iteration of the Devils.
I should note: If the Devils think they can compete with their current roster (as you can tell, I don’t think that’s the case, but I have heard other people are stupid), then they shouldn't make this trade. Their backline is awful, and without Subban’s admittedly underwhelming contributions the Devils have absolutely nothing of value to speak of on the back end. We’ll cover their situation in more detail when either Tom or I do the Devils offseason preview, but unless they are able to convince Alex Pietrangelo to leave and join their cause—presumably via blackmail because I can’t conceive of any other way that happens—there isn’t anyone in the free agent market that’s going to swing New Jersey’s defensive fortunes. I think they should go back in the tank for two years, get rid of Subban, sweat out a bit of the Seabrook money, hope the $2 million in savings helps them in the long run either in the general financial sense or in increased cap room (though it isn’t a lot) to try to plumb future, deeper free agency classes. When they’re ready to spend big, they can spin Seabrook’s contract off at a more manageable two years instead of four in similar way to how Boston dumped David Backes’ contract.
It is not valueless for the Blackhawks. Subban’s punishing cap hit isn’t an easy fit (we’ll get to that in a second), but the difference in value he’ll provide over Seabrook for a Blackhawks team that is desperate to get into contention for the Cup is enough to make adding his punishing contract to Chicago’s books worth it. If Subban can channel even 10 percent of his old self, the Blackhawks defense will see a marked improvement over if Seabrook channels 10 percent of his old self. This is a short term move that is typical of a team dying to reopen its Stanley Cup window, and losing a draft slot or two as well as a draft pick this year that won’t contribute to the next two Blackhawks teams isn’t valuable enough to deep-six this trade.
The reason not to do that trade is that adding Subban will effectively cost the Blackhawks a chance to go after any goaltender better than Corey Crawford, and they’ll need to trade away Maatta, Zack Smith, and Andrew Shaw in order to hold onto some of their supporting players (we’ll get there) while acquiring Subban. I think that Smith and Shaw are essentially negative value players with zero upside, so I’d make those moves in a heartbeat, but shipping out Maatta does carry some risk. It means that de Haan and Subban will be counted on for important minutes no matter what—and both are injury risks. I just think that the current Blackhawks d-corps is so middling that massive changes are the team’s only chance at returning to contention. If de Haan and Subban end up on LTIR, the team is going to have to trade one of their young forwards for defensive replacements, which they would have to do anyway if Seabrook and Maatta stayed. Maatta isn’t making up the difference if it’s de Haan and Seabrook on LTIR, and the Blackhawks don’t have enough cap room to bring back Crawford and bring in a new, top or second-pairing defenseman to take up the spot Subban theoretically would have if the trades took place. I’d rather place a two-year bet on P.K. Subban being revitalized to some degree than trying Ben Hutton or T.J. Brodie as my second best defenseman.
It’s not an enviable situation, but I’d be happier as a Chicago fan seeing Subban on my roster than Seabrook’s deteriorating corpse.
The last piece is bringing back Slater Koekkoek at $2.2 million (per Evolving Hockey). A d-corps of Keith, de Haan, Koekkoek, Connor Murphy, Adam Boqvist, and P.K. Subban is better than Keith, Seabrook, Hutton or Koekkoek, de Haan, Maatta, and Murphy in my opinion. I’m an upside over status quo person, especially when the status quo is the 20th best team in hockey.
But, if the Blackhawks believe in their forward corps and think they’re going to score a lot more in 2020-2021 (I’d say it’s likely since Alex DeBrincat will be due for a bounce-back season), then perhaps that second defense corps without Subban is more appealing to General Manager Stan Bowman.
Here’s a trade with Maatta and Smith in it that I think works, but Ottawa might just blow off: Maatta, Smith, PIT’s 2020 second round pick (Chicago owns it), and Chicago’s 2021 fourth-round pick and 2022 third round pick for Ottawa’s 2021 third-round pick and 2022 fifth-round pick. Ottawa’s books are practically 100 percent clear this offseason, and in return for taking on over $7 million in salary in Maatta and Smith, they get a second round pick this year, move back a round in 2021 (Maatta and Smith carry some value, in my opinion, especially Maatta who will provide some much needed stability on the Senators’ back end, which is pretty woeful beyond Thomas Chabot), and then move up two rounds in the 2022 draft. It’s a low-risk move for Ottawa—in addition to shoring up their weak back-end, they get a long-time Senator back in Smith (Ottawa fans haven’t taken kindly to the amount of players that the Senators have moved out, getting one veteran back will be popular even if Smith is a bottom-six forward at this stage of his career, plus they only have to pay him for one more year). The reward is enough to rationalize moving toward the salary floor while still having over $30 million in cap space to play with to pay some free agents.
Medium certainty: Forward
Current allocation: $45.2M ($4.1M/forward)
Spots to fill: 1
Well, since I’ve dug my grave with this Subban trade, I’ve got to finish getting out of it. Smith is already gone, but Andrew Shaw still needs to go. This trade is going to be a cash-in cash-out deal, essentially: Detroit’s Darren Helm is bad money, but bad money over a shorter period of time, and a perfect candidate for a swap. Shaw makes $3.9 million and has a higher ceiling but two years left on his deal, while Helm makes $3.85 million and expires when the 2021 offseason begins. If Detroit retains $1.525 million on Helm’s deal and the Hawks throw their 2020 fourth-round pick into the deal, I think this gets done without either side blinking. Detroit continuing to add draft capital in return for paying a well-liked veteran for an extra year while easing Chicago’s salary crunch is a zero-risk proposition for the Red Wings. Losing Helm doesn’t hurt at all, and the veteran can slot in as an innings-eater at the bottom of the Blackhawks lineup while being both cheaper than Shaw and coming off the books sooner—giving the Hawks a chance to reenter the free agent market next offseason.
Beyond that, I see little change occurring on the forward line for the Hawks. Evolving Hockey has Dominik Kubalik projected to make $5.68 million, and Chicago will bring the productive young winger back as their most expensive signing of the 2020 offseason. I also see them resigning Drake Caggiula for $1.48 million, per Evolving Hockey, while letting the more expensive restricted free agent Dylan Strome go—I’d throw his rights into the Maatta and Smith deal to sweeten the pot for Ottawa, who just rehabilitated Anthony Duclair’s value and could try to do the same with the less highly touted Strome—who holds more current value now than Duclair did when Ottawa acquired the former Blue Jacket, Ranger, Coyote, and—yes—Blackhawk.
Least certain: Goaltender
Current allocation: $0
Spots to fill: 2
Yeah, I have no idea what’s going to happen here. If I had to guess, Crawford gets brought back (they chose to trade Lehner, not Crawford) at around $4 million for two or three years. If he’s nice, he takes $3.8 million so he remains the starting goaltender. If he’s mean, he takes $4.2 million. Either fit in the cap under the Subban iteration of this team.
At backup, I think the Hawks have to see what’s under the hood with prospect Collin Delia. He’s performed at an okay level in the AHL, and I don’t see any other obvious, cheap options for around his money. If he’s receiving a million dollars, he should be able to function as a big league backup. It’s a risky configuration since Crawford has battled health issues, but it’s clear the Blackhawks aren’t interested in giving out a big goaltender contract if Lehner isn’t appealing to them.
CapFriendly Prediction: $709,000 in space … https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1692086
Big picture:
The Blackhawks are screwed if they’re looking to get back to Cup-contention with the Kane/Toews/Keith trio as their superstar core. I don’t think DeBrincat, Brandon Saad, Shaw, and Kubalik are putting the Hawks over the edge offensively, so their best bet is to get back to contention via a major defensive improvement. It’s more likely nothing happens—this is the NHL after all—but some major moves would make the Blackhawks a higher-upside team, which is about all they can ask for after tying themselves in cap knots. They could trade Seabrook for Helm in a similar deal to the Shaw one I’ve laid out and go after a potential Vezina goalie like Jacob Markstrom, but it’ll cost them all their other supporting pieces, including Kubalik, unless they could also include Shaw in the deal—which will cost a first-round pick and maybe another two high-level selections. If they do that, the Hawks are gambling on goalie voodoo—generally a bad practice. They could stand pat—that’s not going to work, and we know it because it’s literally not working right now. Or they could do the Subban, Helm, and Maatta/Smith moves.
I say swing for the fences.
Jack Goldman is the publisher of this here newsletter and an independent reporter who in his spare time goes to Boston College. You shouldn’t follow him on Twitter @the_manofgold and you definitely shouldn’t hit that button down there and subscribe to A View Off a Ledge.