Definitely a Lot of News and Not Just a Ducks and Panthers Preview
I’m dead serious this isn’t just two NHL previews. I promise.
Okay it’s just two NHL previews. It’s a quiet time, stop looking at me like that.
I will note a couple things before we knock these two out: There’s some legislative pressure locally to get vote-by-mail laws passed at a national level. Sports are on the brink of coming back abroad, and I think that U.S. efforts are soon to follow.
But there isn’t anything of extraordinary substance on those fronts yet? It’s all sort of grandstanding stuff, slowed down by the constant, worldwide vigilance over coronavirus news, which I try my best not to cover here unless I can add something of actual importance.
You’re not going to believe this but I’m not a testing expert so [shrug].
I’m sure more will come out the moment I hit send on this, but to make up for this being just NHL stuff today, Tom Shea is going to come through tomorrow and knock out an NFL draft review. So we’re all distraction this week as, hopefully, we’re beginning to see the light at the end of the current coronavirus tunnel. And if we’re still a ways away from life returning to normal, the oncoming attempts at a returning sports world will get us through.
Let’s do those sports. Subscribe to the newsletter:
[puts on helmet.]
NHL Offseason Preview: The Anaheim Ducks Have Deleted Their Create-a-Team and Restarted
When I started this, I thought the Ducks were going to be an absolute slog. They’ve been terrible this year—it wasn’t like a massive leap of faith to believe that. But...there’s some real potential in this roster and I kind of like its potential, even in the short term. A lot of how well Anaheim performs in the next two years will come down to how aggressive General Manager Bob Murray is, and if he were asking for my opinion, I’d tell him to be more aggressive than consensus thinking would recommend.
Given Elliotte Friedman’s recent report I’m still assuming a $81.5 million cap. For the sake of this argument, we’ll pretend that compliance buyouts won’t be a part of the offseason equation, but we’ll include a buyout section at the end of the preview and explain how that could change Anaheim’s contract landscape. Thanks to Evolving Hockey for their contract projections, they’re worth the patronage! If you’re interested in catching up on the older previews, click here.
Ducks
Current total allocation: $67.8 ($4.24M/player)
Total spots to fill: 6 ($13.7M remaining)
*Note: This allocation is based on the assumption that Ryan Kesler’s career is over due to hip injuries, and he’s been placed on long-term injured-reserve for the purpose of this exercise. He could retire and forfeit the rest of his contract, but I would like getting paid nearly $7M per year too when hockey stole my hip from me. He owes nobody, so it’s LTIR for the remainder of his contract as far as I’m concerned.
— — —
Most certain: Goaltender
Current allocation: $6.4M ($6.4M/player)
Spots to fill: 1
John Gibson is an amazing goaltender according to every goalie expert ever, and Anaheim’s number one priority should be keeping him as healthy and fresh as possible for when the team is ready to return to contention—whenever that is. The last thing the Ducks want is for Gibson to turn into Cory Schneider and have his status as a bona fide Vezina goalie stolen away from him by injuries accrued during a rebuild.
Gibson is under contract for another eight years, which is scary, but it’s at $6.4 million, which is a bargain the proportions of which I can’t even comprehend. Anaheim always storms out of the gate with a few wins while Gibson and Getzlaf are fresh and before the entire team has the hope and belief stamped out of it—Gibson’s high level play is usually why.
So I do think that although there isn’t a lot of uncertainty here—Gibson will be the number one in Anaheim’s crease until either he doesn’t want to be or his body fails him toward the end of his lengthy contract, when he turns 34. The question now is how Anaheim wants to spell him: Since Frederick Anderson was shipped off to Toronto, breaking up the vaunted tandem he and Gibson had formed to give the incumbent starter his first taste of being the unquestioned starter, Ryan Miller has been the Ducks’ backup.
Miller has performed admirably despite his advanced age, and if he doesn’t retire next year and wants to come back and give it another go in Anaheim, I wouldn’t be against the Ducks giving him another contract at around the number he’s paid now ($1.125 million). Miller tossed out a .907 save percentage this year, which isn’t good but is certainly passable for a backup playing around 25 games per year.
That number is also good if the Ducks don’t want to win games and are looking at another shot in the draft lottery in 2021. If GM Bob Murray is looking for that sort of development, than he should absolutely ask Miller to stay another year instead of either retiring or going cup chasing in Boston or Toronto.
If Miller is walking out the door, than the Ducks are faced with a slightly odd situation. They could ask Craig Anderson to come over in free agency from Ottawa for one last shot, but he certainly seems washed up—more so than Miller ever has, despite only having a slightly lower save percentage .
Other options could be young, terrible goaltenders looking for one last chance at an NHL job: Toronto washout Garret Sparks, former New Jersey and Montreal goaltender Keith Kinkaid, or current Vancouver stopgap Louis Domingue could all be options Anaheim looks at. Longtime Detroit netminder Jimmy Howard is coming on the market after an awful year with the awful Red Wings, and it’s possible that putting him behind an even slightly serviceable defense will raise his performance to Miller’s level—making him a somewhat feasible option for Anaheim.
A one year make-good contract for former superstar Brayden Holtby could be a good use of resources—the Ducks do have cap space to pay him a little more than the market probably would like, plus if he’s good they can flip him at next season’s trade deadline to a contender who needs high level production from a goaltender on a comeback year. Holtby is only 30 and it’s unlikely he’s back with Washington after his sub-.900 sv% 2019-20, and I think he should absolutely be at the top of Anaheim’s wish list. Unfortunately, teams like Calgary or Las Vegas might have the same idea in mind, but don’t want to have to pay draft pick compensation to Anaheim at the deadline for the netminder.
Ultimately, it’s possible the Ducks pay Jaroslav Halak too much money on the same principle, but Halak may not be interested in playing for a team that is neither a contender nor offering a starting position. The same would go for Cam Talbot, who’s likely to return to Calgary after his rebound .919 sv% year and Anton Khudobin. I imagine one of Miller, Holtby, or the Sparks/Kincaid/Howard trio will head to Anaheim next year unless they want to take a chance on one of their AHL goalies being ready to fill the backup slot—Lukas Dostal, Olle Eriksson Ek, and Anthony Stolarz would be the most likely candidates from that crew.
For the sake of this exercise, I say Howard gets one year, $1.125 from the Ducks. It’s just as likely as the AHL option, which is cheaper, but I don’t know how ready the kids are to jump into the big show. Honestly, a lot of how this backup goalie situation plays out could be subject to how well the Ducks perform based on whether they adopt the aggressive offseason strategy I’m about to lay out or stay conservative. Want to go conservative? Sign Howard or Miller. Want to be aggressive? Try to get Holtby or, somehow, Khudobin. I think they’re conservative at goaltender to make sure they’re not locked into anyone long term, and bet on Howard in case they’re actually good.
Medium certainty: Defense
Current allocation: $19.8M ($4.95M/player)
Spots to fill: 3
On the surface, this could arguably be in the “most certain” category, but in the Winnipeg Jets preview, Tom Shea traded Patrik Laine for the Ducks’ Hampus Lindholm, and I loved that trade (even though Winnipeg fans on CapFriendly did not), so we’re going to do that again here. Here’s what I wrote in an addendum to Tom’s piece on the potential deal:
“The Laine for Lindholm trade is one-for-one in this scenario. Tom and I thought about the most likely form of the trade and settled on one-for-one, despite the anger from people in the comment section of the CapFriendly page we made. Perhaps consensus is that the Ducks would need to give up either draft pick(s) or another piece, but the value difference between Lindholm and Laine doesn’t appear to be massive to either Tom or I. Perhaps our analytics addled minds are undervaluing goal-scoring, but my instinct is that we’re going to be on the right side of history. Laine isn’t producing goals at a rate that is significantly superior to Lindholm’s defensive production. Both are essentially smack-dab in the second-tier of their respective positions: Laine isn’t MVP-level Taylor Hall, and his position as a winger devalues his scoring, while Lindholm isn’t Victor Hedman but is absolutely qualified to be a number one defenseman. Laine can be Phil Kessel, perhaps the evolved version, but that doesn’t mean he’s worth significantly more than a defenseman who may not be able to carry an entire d-corps to a Stanley Cup, but can certainly carry a team to the playoffs and farther if he’s surrounded by the right pieces. Or just toss one of Anaheim’s high draft picks into the deal to even it out if it makes you feel better (just know that you’re going to need Laine to score more than 35 goals/70 points to make it worth Anaheim’s while).”
I think all that still holds true now, and ultimately it comes down to this: Anaheim has tied up $10 million in Cam Fowler and Josh Manson, both of whom have no-trade-clauses in their contracts because Bob Murray is an insane person apparently. The Ducks desperately could use a scorer such as Laine on the team’s forward line, and Winnipeg might need a top-tier defender even more than that. Anaheim has always been able to find defensive talent in the draft, and I’m intentionally going to leave the third spot that needs to be filled on the Ducks’ back end empty so their high draft pick can slot right in. If the Ducks don’t take a defenseman, it means they don’t trade for Laine.
In addition, Ducks have three more defense prospects on restricted free agent deals in Simon Benoit, Axel Andersson, and Josh Mahura who could all see NHL time next year. I trust the system that has pumped out so many A+ defense prospects over the last decade to be able to put out a few more to cover the hole Lindholm’s departure will leave. Worst case scenario? The Ducks make a play for Alex Pietrangelo that fails this offseason and they try to make a play for whoever next year’s big defensive free agent is.
But that really is the worst case scenario—I see the Ducks promoting Benoit or Andersson to the big leagues, adding a defenseman in the draft who can slot in on the team’s third pair immediately (there are four defensemen in the top 10 prospects on NHL.com in this year’s draft), and if they buyout Erik Gudbransson from the last year of his deal (see the buyout section for more), they could take a swing at getting someone like Kevin Shattenkirk or Travis Hamonic on a short-term deal without a no-trade-clause, if either are amenable. Perhaps T.J. Brodie or Ben Hutton would be more amenable to a move.
I say they bring back restricted free agents Brendan Guhle and Christian Djoos on name value alone, despite the young depth in the AHL, as a backup plan.
Least certain: Forward
Current allocation: $34.9M ($3.17M/player)
Spots to fill: 2
For a team with only two spots to fill in its forward corps, it’s almost impressive that the Ducks should still consider their forwards their least certain position. Getzlaf is signed for another year and I’d argue likely to get another contract at a reduced number from Anaheim to provide veteran leadership in a reduced role, plus Anaheim is locked in long-term to Jakob Silfverberg and Adam Henrique at high numbers, plus Rickard Rakell has two more years on his moderately expensive deal.
There doesn’t seem like a lot of potential for movement here at first glance.
But I don’t think that’s exactly the case. The Laine trade gets the ball rolling—that’s a major change and makes the Ducks first three lines look relatively passable in terms of ability. I still think the Ducks should use their sizable cap space to bring in another big addition—I think this is a perfect landing spot for Taylor Hall: I know Hall wants to be in the playoffs and go for cup contention, but I’d seriously consider giving the Anaheim a chance because of the roster potential and because it would be insane for any team to sign him long-term given how bad he was in 2019-20.
This is where I and Evolving Hockey are going to part in terms of agreement on a potential contract for the first time: The Evolving projections have Hall getting $8.5 million for seven years, and I watched hockey this year and theoretically NHL front offices did too, and if they did, Taylor Hall isn’t going to be able to sign long-term at nearly that high a number. I think a one or two-year deal is more likely, but I wouldn’t be surprised if such a deal came at something of a premium—I don’t see Hall getting less than $7 million, and for the sake of this exercise, I’m going to say he gets $8 million if he signs for one year and $7.5 million if he signs for two. The Ducks should be throwing a party if they get Hall to sign a contract at either of those numbers, and if he succeeds and propels them into playoff contention then they should lock him down long-term without hesitation via an extension. I like the two-year deal more for both parties but...there’s a chance Hall is willing to take less and go to a contender—playing in Edmonton and New Jersey for a long time can do that to you.
Tom Shea had Evgeni Dadonov replacing Hall in Arizona—if Hall stays with the Coyotes or Dadonov doesn’t want to go play in the desert, I could see Anaheim going after him instead—even at six years, the addition would be really helpful in shoring up the Ducks up front. I don’t really see this happening, though—a deal for Mike Hoffman or Tyler Toffoli is a lot more likely.
Toffoli seems like a prime candidate since he already has played in California and loved it. I say the most likely outcome is he moves back home and joins Anaheim’s ranks.
Oh—they’ll bring back American World Juniors hero Troy Terry too. Here’s how:
Compliance Buyout Prediction: David Backes
I’m afraid that the only way to pull all this off is to wipe Backes off the Ducks’ books. It’s one of very few one year deals I’d ever consider not buying out the old fashioned way, but doing that would leave Anaheim on the hook for a $3 million cap hit they won’t be able to afford if they bring Toffoli in. To me, the potential of the roster after each of the moves described above means adding a high-quality free agent like Toffoli could really push the Ducks to the next level competitively without surrendering a single one of their draft assets. Backes is a cap drain that wouldn’t be necessary if Laine is on the team—I say go for it, chop the full $4.5 million off the cap sheet, and go after a playoff spot.
CapFriendly prediction: $1,568,791 in space, but that’s if the Ducks buyout Backes the old fashioned way. If they do a compliance buyout, they’ll have $4,568,791 ...
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1719926
Big picture:
This may have been the most useful preview I’ve done—I didn’t think the Ducks rebuild was going well, but they’ve got real potential to pull off some coups and go on a playoff run next year. I’m impressed by how much cap room and how many prospects they have—combined with some aggressive moves to improve the forwards, I think this team really has quite the crew put together. There’s a lot of different potential scenarios for how the Ducks offseason could play out, and this is probably the most aggressive version—they could just maintain the status quo and pursue more prospects at the top of the draft. But, if they do it this way, they would have enough room at the trade deadline to make a move for a first-liner or top tier defenseman to try to make a feasible cup-run. I may be too high on this team, but I’m really encouraged by the position Bob Murray has them in, even if I can’t believe he gave Fowler and Manson no-trade-clauses.
NHL Offseason Preview: The Florida Panthers Are Troubled
As promising as the Ducks are, I have a lot more questions about what the Panthers are. They have massive holes on their front line, and their defense is generally just a giant question mark in terms of effectiveness. The Segei Bobrovsky contract looms over all this—so do the rumors that the team needs to cut money because of how big a failure the Bobrovsky contract is.
Like I said, they’re a lot of questions.
Given Elliotte Friedman’s recent report I’m still assuming a $81.5 million cap. For the sake of this argument, we’ll pretend that compliance buyouts won’t be a part of the offseason equation, but we’ll include a buyout section at the end of the preview and explain how that could change Florida’s contract landscape. Thanks to Evolving Hockey for their contract projections, they’re worth the patronage! If you’re interested in catching up on the older previews, click here.
Panthers
Current total allocation: $60.5 ($4.65M/player)
Total spots to fill: 9 ($20.9M remaining)
— — —
Most certain: Goaltender
Current allocation: $10.85M ($5.4M/player)
Spots to fill: nada
Well...if Bobrovsky returns to form, the Panthers are in an excellent situation and should be extremely aggressive in free agency. Unfortunately, they shouldn’t assume that. I don’t know how long Chris Driedger’s hot streak is going to last, but it’s going to need to last six more years at a relatively low number if the Panthers are going to survive Bobrovsky being horrible. If he’s average? It doesn’t need to last long at all and they can just split time. Driedger’s numbers were unbelievable last year considering how anonymous he’d been to that point in his career. Florida better hope he has at least another year of seriously solid production in him to ensure they don’t dip to the bottom of the league’s standings.
Medium certainty: Defense
Current allocation: $24.99M ($4.99M/player)
Spots to fill: 2
This is a REALLY expensive d-corps. It could be even more expensive if the Panthers decide to bring Mark Pysyk back, but neither I nor Evolving Hockey think he’ll be back in Sunrise next year. I’d rather take a chance on a couple of my soon-to-be restricted free agent defensive prospects than roll back the Pysyk experience. Given how many holes there are at forward, I punt on defense, promote internally, bring back restricted free agent Josh Brown at a low number, and hope I have enough cap space at the end of this that if the team is a lot better next year, General Manager Dale Tallon can be as aggressive as he wants to be at the trade deadline. It’s more likely this team is still barely in playoff contention, which would mean saving on your sixth and seventh defenseman would be even more of a priority.
Least certain: Forward
Current allocation: $20.7M ($3.45M/player)
Spots to fill: 7
The Panthers only lucky aspect of having this many holes to fill is that only one of the players currently among the forwards under contract is an overpaid fourth-liner (Colton Sceviour). Brett Connolly, Frank Vatrano, and Noel Acciari are returning as depth forwards coming off career years (presumably because they’re all former Bruins). Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau are great core pieces, but now the Panthers have to fill in the ranks, and they may only have ten million dollars to do it if the report they need to cut salaries is true.
I don’t think Evgeni Dadonov is coming back—he’ll be too expensive despite being quite good. Same goes for Mike Hoffman—those two guys just couldn’t push Florida into playoff contention thanks to the Bobrovsky debacle. If Florida doesn’t need to cut costs, I’d certainly consider bringing both of those guys back, but for the sake of this exercise I think we have to assume both are gone since both are thought highly of outside of Florida. The unfortunate thing is with Florida’s stingy budget requirements, I don’t think full-time replacements for these two are on the way. It’s more likely that cheap, lower end options get signed in addition to internal promotion of young guns, leaving Tallon room to maneuver if necessary next year.
I think Florida should try to bring back Brian Boyle, Dryden Hunt, Dominic Toninato, Aleksi Saarela, Henrik Borgstrom, and Lucas Wallmark if they can. All except Boyle are restricted free agents, but only Wallmark is going to command a notably sizable cap hit. I don’t think Boyle comes back because he’ll want either more money with a worse team or less money with a contender for the cup. He may be happy in Florida, but I think it’s more likely he takes a discount to go back to Tampa Bay than taking a deal from the Panthers.
At that point, I think the Panthers will have to re-sign Erik Haula for maybe too much money, but they desperately need center depth and defensive solidity that he’s sure to provide.
That leaves room for one more winger signing, and I think the Panthers should go after either Tyler Ennis, Jesper Fast, or Josh Leivo. Some goal scoring production for cheap that won’t rise above third-line production, but also won’t command a crazy amount of years on the open market will need to be Florida’s priority. I say Leivo is the ultimate choice Tallon makes.
It’s a worse team on paper, but a less expensive one by $6 million, and the Panthers absolutely have the draft assets to go out and get a first or second liner at next year’s deadline if their play improves.
Compliance Buyout Prediction: None
The only good candidate for a buyout on Florida’s books is Bobrovsky. It’s extremely unlikely that’s going to happen. Since Connelly and Vatrano have played well, I just don’t see any other options.
CapFriendly prediction: $7,105106 in space …
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1720048
Big picture:
Florida is stuck between a rock and a hard place here. Low revenue means spending to the cap, like they did this year, requires a long playoff run. This year’s Panthers barely stuck around for playoff contention—I think that means cutting costs is required, and honestly it’s probably necessary. Florida needs a larger sample for the forwards they have, and bringing back Hoffman and Dadonov is not necessary to that pursuit—high-priced wingers aren’t what Florida needs on its books right now. If their record is better next year, those types are always available on the trade market, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of positive regression playing in Florida’s favor next year, leading to some more aggressive moves from Tallon, who’ll be dying to make some moves after a relatively conservative offseason.
Jack Goldman is the publisher of this here newsletter and an independent reporter who goes to Boston College in his spare time, apparently. You shouldn’t follow him on Twitter @the_manofgold. You definitely shouldn’t subscribe and share A View Off a Ledge, which you definitely can’t do using those buttons right below here. They’re right there, seriously, just hit one.